What is Melania Trump’s game in suddenly defending abortion rights?

When news broke on Wednesday evening that Melania Trump supports abortion rights - and apparently has for her entire adult life - it was greeted with surprise and confusion.

Melania's husband, Donald Trump, is trying to rapidly recalibrate his approach to abortion as he races towards election day. Is his wife trying to help him? Hurt him? Or neither?

In her forthcoming memoir, Melania Trump went into extensive detail about her support for the procedure.

"Why should anyone other than the woman herself have the power to determine what she does with her own body?" she wrote. "A woman's fundamental right of individual liberty, to her own life, grants her the authority to terminate her pregnancy if she wishes."

Shortly after the Guardian broke the news, Trump uploaded a black-and-white video of herself to social media, set to stirring music.

"Without a doubt, there is no room for compromise when it comes to this essential right that all women possess from birth," she said. "Individual freedom. What does my body, my choice really mean?"

The news of Melania Trump's support for abortion rights comes at a time when her husband is striving to convince voters that he can be trusted to protect abortion rights.

In the years since the US supreme court overturned Roe v Wade in 2022, abortion has become Republicans' achilles heel. It cost Republicans victories in the 2022 midterms, while abortion rights supporters have won a string of ballot measures even in states as red as Kentucky, Kansas and Ohio.

Earlier on in his campaign, Trump attempted to be all-things-abortion to everybody, alternately bragging about his role in overturning Roe - by appointing three of the justices who voted for its demise - and grousing that hardline positions on abortion were costing the GOP elections. But since Kamala Harris, an extraordinarily effective messenger on abortion, became the Democratic nominee for president, he has abandoned that approach in favor of garbled support for abortion rights.

"WOMEN WILL BE HAPPY, HEALTH, CONFIDENT AND FREE!" Trump recently posted on Truth Social. "YOU WILL NO LONGER BE THINKING ABOUT ABORTION, BECAUSE IT IS NOW WHERE IT ALWAYS HAD TO BE, WITH THE STATES."

Melania Trump's revelation, then, could be intended to reassure undecided voters who are disinclined to vote for Harris but support abortion rights - as a majority of Americans do. But Tresa Undem, a pollster who has surveyed people on abortion for more than two decades, said the odds of such comments appealing to moderates or abortion-supporting conservatives were "fairly slim".

After all, regardless of her personal convictions, it seems unlikely that Melania Trump has any real sway over her tempestuous husband's policies. Her pro-abortion rights beliefs did not stop Donald Trump from helping to demolish Roe. It also doesn't help that Melania and Donald Trump's relationship is, at least in public, far from cozy. (He recently indicated, despite having written the foreword, that he hasn't read the book.)

"Nothing Republicans say will distract the American people from the reality they see with their own eyes: story after story of victims of rape and incest being forced into pregnancy, doctors forced to turn away patients during miscarriages and ectopic pregnancies and women literally dying because of Trump's abortion bans," Emilia Rowland, Democratic national committee press secretary, said in a text.

Melania Trump's disagreement with her husband is also not as novel as it may seem. Betty Ford, the wife of the Republican president Gerald Ford, was an adamant supporter of abortion rights, said Mary Ziegler, a University of California Davis school of law professor who studies the legal history of reproduction. It didn't end up making much of a difference in Gerald Ford's campaign.

"I think people understand that Melania and Donald Trump are very different people," Ziegler said. "I could see independent and swing voters saying: 'Wow. It's bad that even Donald Trump's wife doesn't like Donald Trump's position.'"

What Melania Trump's news seems to have done is anger the anti-abortion activists who have made up some of Trump's most reliable supporters. These activists were already annoyed by Trump's recent attempts to paint himself as an abortion rights champion.

"Melania Trump's support of abortion is anti-feminist and clearly outside the teaching of our Catholic faith. She is wrong," Kristan Hawkins, president of the pro-life organization Students for Life of America, posted on X. "What a lost opportunity to inspire a generation of young women."

Melania Trump's strategy, such as it is, may be much more straightforward than activists and politicos may think. She has never seemed particularly interested in being first lady, and she doesn't appear to be invested in winning the job back, seeing as she has largely disappeared from the 2024 campaign trail.

But Trump does seem interested in doing at least one thing: selling books. Suggesting that there is controversy within her memoir's pages probably helps move copies.

Or not. In her post, Hawkins added: "I won't be buying Melania's book."