Key House projection spells trouble for two Republican lawmakers

They were both ranked as "toss-up" races, meaning it was anyone's game ahead of Nov. 5. The Cook Partisan Voting Index (PVI) ranks Bacon's race as "even," whereas D'Esposito's is five points in favor of Democrats.

Democrats and Republicans are battling for control of the House of Representatives, which is currently held by the GOP with a slim four-vote margin.

Bacon and D'Esposito were widely considered two of the most vulnerable Republicans on the congressional map. They're two of 16 House GOP lawmakers in seats that President Biden won in the 2020 race.

Both also won their seats by defeating Democrats - Bacon winning against a Democratic incumbent in 2016 and D'Esposito scoring an open seat previously held by a liberal in 2022.

D'Esposito's district sits on the New York City suburb of Long Island. His victory was part of a wider backlash against the city's progressive crime policies that was credited with delivering Republicans the House majority that year.

But with the presidential race at stake this time, Democrats have worked to tie D'Esposito to former President Donald Trump, who D'Esposito endorsed for re-election but is still a divisive figure among suburban swing voters.

D'Esposito spokesman Matt Capp told Fox News Digital of the Cook update, "Long Islanders of all political stripes are tired of the radical leftist agenda advanced by progressives like Laura Gillen that have seen our borders deteriorate and inflation surge. Our polls continue to have Congressman D'Esposito ahead and voters overwhelmingly support his plan to secure the border, curb wasteful federal spending, and combat violent crime."

Democrats also see opportunity in Bacon's Omaha-anchored district, considered by Cook to be the least Republican of ruby-red Nebraska's congressional seats.

Bacon, a retired Air Force brigadier general, has won every re-election battle since his 2016 race by less than 3%. 

But he's facing what could be his toughest race yet in Nebraska state legislator Tony Vargas - to whom House Democrats have also given enormous time, money and resources.

Bacon's campaign directed Fox News Digital to the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) when reached for comment. NRCC spokeswoman Delanie Bomar said, "We have faith Nebraskans will reject Tony Vargas for the same reasons they rejected him in 2022: he's soft on crime and supports higher taxes. On the other hand, Congressman Don Bacon is a former Brigadier General and strong, commonsense legislator who has brought home results for Nebraskans over and over again."