US intelligence warned of the potential for violence days before Hamas attack

The US intelligence community produced at least two assessments based in part on intelligence provided by Israel warning the Biden administration of an increased risk for Palestinian-Israeli conflict in the weeks ahead of Saturday's seismic attack on southern Israel, according to sources familiar with the intelligence.

One update from September 28 warned, based on multiple streams of intelligence, that the terror group Hamas was poised to escalate rocket-attacks across the border. An October 5 wire from the CIA warned generally of the increasing possibility of violence by Hamas. Then, on October 6, the day before the attack, US officials circulated reporting from Israel indicating unusual activity by Hamas - indications that are now clear: an attack was imminent.

None of the American assessments offered any tactical details or indications of the overwhelming scope, scale and sheer brutality of the operation that Hamas carried out on October 7, sources say. It is unclear if any of these US assessments were shared with Israel, which provides much of the intelligence that the US bases its reports on.

Israel, Gaza and the West Bank are also on a "hot spots" list included in intelligence briefings for senior officials almost daily, a person who receives the briefings said.

Intelligence assessments are written by the intelligence community to inform policy makers and enable them to make decisions.

"The problem is that none of this is new," said one of the sources familiar with the intelligence. "This is something that has historically been the norm between Hamas and Israel. I think what happened is everyone saw these reports and were like, 'Yeah of course. But we know what this will look like.'"

But the assessments were among a wave of high-level warnings given to the Biden administration by both its own intelligence community and Middle Eastern allies over the past year, raising questions about whether the US and Israel were appropriately attuned to the risk.