Trump promised lower costs; the Iran conflict now threatens that pledge

When the Fed's two-day meeting wraps up Wednesday, policymakers are widely expected to leave rates unchanged. 

Tit-for-tat strikes in Iran and across the Middle East have helped push crude above $100 a barrel for the first time since 2022, rattling global markets and renewing concerns about tighter energy supplies.

As of March 17, AAA put the national average for regular gasoline at $3.79 a gallon, up 88 cents from a month earlier, while diesel climbed to $5.04, up $1.39 over the same period.

Jet fuel is getting more expensive, too. 

The pressure is showing up in housing, too. 

Mortgage rates have crept higher since the start of the Iran war. The benchmark 30-year fixed rate dipped below 6% in late February, its lowest level since September 2022, before rising higher to 6.26% as of March 16, according to data compiled by the Mortgage Bankers Association. 

That combination of stubborn inflation and a weakening labor market has only intensified pressure from Trump, whose promise to lower costs for Americans was a centerpiece of his campaign.

For months, he has pressed Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell to lower interest rates, arguing that cheaper borrowing would spur growth and offer relief to American households. Fed officials, however, have signaled they want clearer evidence that inflation is cooling before cutting.

"Where is the Federal Reserve Chairman, Jerome "Too Late" Powell, today? He should be dropping Interest Rates, IMMEDIATELY, not waiting for the next meeting," Trump wrote in a Truth Social post using a mocking nickname for Powell. 

For Trump, the timing is brutal.