October Fests: A potpourri of late election-year 'surprises' shake up most races, history shows

The term "October surprise" - denoting an unexpected plot twist late in an election cycle that typically throws a wrench in prognostications - first entered the U.S. lexicon in 1980.

During that contest between Georgia Gov. Jimmy Carter and former California Gov. Ronald Reagan, Reagan was cognizant that a sudden release of 52 hostages in Iran could boost his opponent's campaign.

To that time, Carter's term was marked by long-term economic "malaise," foreign policy stumbles like the hostage crisis and other concerns.

Reagan's campaign manager, former SEC Chairman William Casey, warned that Carter might be planning such an "October surprise" and urged allies in the intelligence community to alert them to any premonitions of a hostage release.

Ultimately, no "surprise" ever occurred, and Iran's Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomenei instead released the hostages after 444 days in captivity on the date Reagan was inaugurated in 1981, instead giving Republicans positive fodder.

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As far as October surprises go, Reagan's 1984 reelection campaign against former Vice President Fritz Mondale was quiet. The Republican went on to win a record 49 states, excluding Mondale's Minnesota.