Millions of voters have already cast ballot for Nov 5 election

Early in-person and mail-in ballots have begun pouring in across the country, and the tally in each state reveals mounting voter enthusiasm. 

As of Tuesday afternoon, more than 15 million ballots have been cast nationwide.

Here is a breakdown of where early ballots have been cast, either by mail or in person, in the seven battleground states, according to The Associated Press.

Over the past two decades, the prevalence of early voting has skyrocketed. While early ballots demonstrate voter enthusiasm, they do not reliably determine which candidate is winning the race, because fewer voters are expected to cast early votes than in the previous presidential election. 

Democrats and Republicans are expected to be less divided on early voting this cycle. Four years ago, Democrats won the total early vote by 11 points. However, two things have changed: first, with the COVID-19 pandemic no longer front-of-mind, many voters will be more willing to show up on Election Day. Second, unlike in 2020, Trump and the GOP are no longer discouraging their voters from casting an early ballot. The upshot should be a smaller partisan gap once the votes are counted.

Some states also offer breakdowns of their early ballots - for example, by party affiliation, race, or age. Comparing these results to other elections might give the impression that one candidate or party is now doing better than the other.

Additionally, while early vote data shows the party registration of some voters, it does not reveal how they voted. States do not release actual vote counts until election night. The vote data that some states are releasing now shows the party affiliation of voters who have requested or returned a ballot. However, that is not the same as their actual vote. For example, a voter may have registered as a Democrat decades ago, but chose to vote for Trump this year. Many voters are not registered to either party, making their vote even more of a mystery.