Harris holds narrow lead over Trump in 'blue wall' states Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin: poll

A slew of new polls show Vice President Kamala Harris taking a narrow lead over former President Trump in the "blue wall" states many forecasters say she needs to win to clinch the presidency. 

Marist polls of battlegrounds Michigan and Pennsylvania released on Friday have the Democratic vice president ahead of her Republican rival by 2 points in each state, 50% to 48%. A third poll of Wisconsin voters shows Harris with a 3 percentage point lead, 51%-48%. 

All these results are within the Marist polls' margins of error, plus or minus 3.4 points for the Michigan and Pennsylvania polls and plus or minus 3.5 points for the Wisconsin survey. The surveys were conducted Oct. 27-30. 

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The numbers point toward another historically close election next Tuesday following the 2020 cycle, when just 44,000 votes spread across key battleground states handed President Biden the Electoral College votes he needed to unseat Trump. Similarly, in 2016, Trump captured the White House by just under 78,000 votes in the three "blue wall" states. 

The small leads Harris holds are credited to independent voters, who appear to be moving in her direction in the final days of the election. Harris opened up a 6-point lead over Trump among independents in Michigan, 52%-46%, improving from a 2-point lead in September. She also improved from a 4-point edge with Wisconsin independents in early September to a 6-point lead at the end of October.

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