Democrats on edge in critical Michigan amid fears of waning enthusiasm

With just three weeks left until the election, Democrats fear that Trump is right. Some complain that Harris has squandered an initial burst of enthusiasm after Joe Biden dropped out of the race in July, which sparked a surge in fundraising and volunteering for her campaign.

The Harris campaign has long considered its easiest path to victory is by winning the Rust belt battleground states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. If the vice-president were to lose in Michigan, she would almost certainly need to win one of the other closely contested states of Georgia, Arizona or North Carolina.

A Quinnipiac University poll released last Wednesday put the vice-president three points behind Trump in Michigan, while poll trackers offer a mixed picture.

For those desperate to know which way Michigan might go, it is Saginaw that is the bellwether county of the state. Barack Obama won it twice before Trump beat Hillary Clinton in the county by a little more than 1,000 votes, just over 1% of the ballot, in 2016. Four years later, Biden took Saginaw county from Trump by an even narrower margin of just 303 votes.

Both campaigns are piling resources into Michigan including a deluge of frantic television advertising, and a merry-go-round of candidates and prominent supporters wheeling through the state.

The Harris campaign has wheeled out Barack Obama in recent days and sent Bernie Sanders, the darling of the left of the Democratic party, to rally student support in Saginaw a week ago.

Across the key Rust belt states, Trump has a clear lead on two of the most important issues for many voters, the economy and immigration. He is even ahead by one point on which candidate would better preserve democracy, despite his efforts to overturn the 2020 election, according to the Quinnipiac poll.

Some Democratic campaigners blame the campaign.

In a move to shore that up, Democratic heavyweights from out of state, including the former US senator from Indiana Joe Donnelly, descended on Saginaw last Wednesday to tell trade union members that Biden had been good for blue collar workers and Harris would be too.

Sanders also mocked Trump for losing the support of his own vice-president, Mike Pence.

Ultimately, the election in Michigan may be decided by events half a world away.