Can ex-governor’s anti-Trump stance swing key Senate seat for Republicans?

At a conservative thinktank on 14th Street in Washington DC, awaiting Larry Hogan, the Republican candidate for US Senate in Maryland, one staffer turned to another. "It's nice having something to vote for, for a change," the staffer wryly said. Shortly after, the former governor arrived for his speech at the Jewish Institute for National Security of America (Jinsa), part of his campaign to win in a state that hasn't elected a Republican senator since 1980.

When he left the executive mansion in Annapolis last year, Hogan told his friendly audience, he had governed for eight years as a popular moderate but had not been looking for another job - "And frankly, I didn't yearn to be a part of the divisiveness and dysfunction in Washington," he said.

"But when I saw a bipartisan package to secure our border and to support Israel, Ukraine and Taiwan and other American allies fail because people were told [by Donald Trump] to vote against a critical [immigration] bill that they claimed to be for, it made me frustrated enough that I knew I had to step up and try to do something about the mess in Washington."

Washington is not Maryland but the Old Line State is just a few miles up 14th from Jinsa. There, Hogan faces the Prince George's county executive, Angela Alsobrooks, for an open seat in November - a race in which the Democrat, who if she wins will be only the third Black woman ever elected to the US Senate, enjoys significant polling leads.

The race has become potentially decisive in determining Senate control, and a test of anti-Trump sentiment on the right. Significant spending and endorsements are pouring in. Highly regarded as a local leader and "tough on crime" Democrat, Alsobrooks defeated a DC establishment candidate, the congressman David Trone, in her primary and is now piling on praise from party grandees. She recently released an ad featuring Barack Obama and secured support from the Washington Post.

On Thursday night, the two candidates will meet for a high-stakes debate.

In practical terms, it takes 51 votes - or 50 if your party holds the presidency - to control the Senate. Democrats currently hold it 51-49 but face tough contests to hold seats in Republican-leaning states such as Montana and Ohio. It means Maryland counts this year, and Hogan's toughest challenge may lie in persuading enough Democratic voters they can trust him should Republicans retake the chamber with him as the 51st vote. In turn, Democrats know that if they cannot hold so deep blue a state as Maryland, they will in all likelihood lose control of the Senate.

Hogan is therefore seeking to depict himself as an antidote to Trump - and his rival as too far left. At Jinsa, talking foreign policy, he criticized Trump but he also knocked Alsobrooks, including for "repeatedly demand[ing] that Israel enact an immediate and unilateral ceasefire, and [for calling] for cutting off critical military aid".

As popular as Hogan is - he stepped down as governor with a 77% approval rating - polling suggests that message is not landing. According to 538, since one tied poll in August, Alsobrooks's lead has ranged from five to 17 points.

Hogan begged to differ. "I think it's a very close race," he said. "I've always been an underdog in every one of my races.

"There are people out there that we've still got to convince," he added, "and we've got [then] 34 more days to do it, and I feel confident we're going to win the race. It's tough, though. I mean, we're a very blue state, and we're overcoming a huge deficit at the top of the ticket."

Trump has been called many things, but "huge deficit" may be a new one. Hogan has said he won't vote for Trump (or Kamala Harris), but must nonetheless fend off persistent questions about the man who rules his party. One recent ad from Hogan's campaign deplored the "horror" of January 6. And yet, as Republicans from Trump and the Senate minority leader, Mitch McConnell, on down know, sometimes a candidate must be allowed away from the party line.

In Maryland, Hogan is free to be Hogan. That's to his advantage. To his disadvantage, Democrats from the Senate majority leader, Chuck Schumer, to Alsobrooks on down know Hogan has a bigger problem.

In June 2022, in the case Dobbs v Jackson, the US supreme court to which Trump appointed three hardliners removed the federal right to abortion. Two years on, Hogan insists he will not let his party go further.

"[Alsobrooks's campaign] want[s] to focus on making it a cookie-cutter Democratic talking points race but it's not, because I have a different position than most Republicans," he said at the Jinsa event. "And so, you know, I've promised to be a sponsor to codify Roe v Wade, the 1973 ruling that previously safeguarded abortion rights, so that nobody comes between a woman and her doctor in any state in America, and to sponsor a bill to protect IVF."

He also insisted that "most people are concerned about the economy. They're concerned about affordability, inflation, they're concerned about crime in their communities, and they're concerned about securing the border and fixing [the] broken immigration system."

Among Democratic rejoinders: while a member of the executive committee of the Republican Governors Association, Hogan worked to elect allies in states that now have stringent abortion bans. In his own state, in 2022, he vetoed a bill to expand abortion access. The same year, he said Trump "nominated incredible justices to the supreme court", a comment Democrats have brought back to haunt him. Hogan says he was not referring to Dobbs but Alsobrooks is happy to keep the spotlight on the issue. As she recently said: "I think my opponent's record is very clear where abortion care is concerned."

Many Americans fear a national abortion ban, should Trump be president again. Hogan said he had been against that for decades "and I'll be the one of the ones standing up, regardless of who the president is or who's in control of Senate". But he also said he would not support reform to the filibuster, the Senate rule that requires 60 votes for most legislation, in order to codify Roe.

A few days after Hogan's event at Jinsa, about 40 miles (65km) north-east in Baltimore, Democrats gathered at a canvassing hub. Once a wedding venue, the Majestic Hall of Events was surrounded by less-than-majestic auto shops and down-at-heel churches. Inside, Alsobrooks addressed a crowd organized by D4 Women in Action, linked to Delta Sigma Theta, one of the Divine Nine Black women's sororities, to which Alsobrooks belongs.

In her speech, Alsobrooks spoke about her links to Baltimore and "the number one issue across our state, and the thing that people most desire to have: economic opportunity". She also took shots at her opponent. "What did he do [as governor] when he had the opportunity to stand up for all of our families in Baltimore? He sent back $900m to the federal government."

That was a reference to a 2015 decision to scrap a light rail project, a call that attracted lawsuits. But Alsobrooks also looked to the national stage, and the issue she wants foremost in voters' minds.

"This race is bigger than both of us," Alsobrooks told the Guardian. "Bigger than Larry Hogan the person. It's bigger than Angela the person. It's about issues and about the future. It is about reproductive freedom."

At Jinsa, Hogan said Democrats were trying to turn a state race into a national contest. Alsobrooks embraced the charge: "The former governor thinks he's running to go back to Annapolis. We're actually running to go to Washington DC, and we would represent Marylanders there."

Much has been made of the warm relationship Hogan and Alsobrooks enjoyed when Hogan was governor. Asked about an unearthed Hogan comment - that Alsobrooks was a better Prince George's county executive than his own father, the late congressman Lawrence Hogan - Alsobrooks said: "He has become, in a lot of ways, the kind of politician he says he despises, one who's very disingenuous.

Keeping Maryland Democratic will require turning out the vote. At the canvassing hub, one phone-banker wearily said: "Put in two shifts this morning." A friend smiled back: "Only a hundred more to go."

The same Jinsa staffer who earlier had said it was "nice to have something to vote for" with Hogan also said that he hadn't felt so good about a Senate race since 2006 - which was still a defeat - in which "getting more than 40% felt like a moral victory".

Back then, Ben Cardin, the Democrat retiring this year, beat Michael Steele, a Hogan-esque GOP moderate. Steele went on to chair the Republican National Committee, then became an MSNBC host and Never Trumper. Asked for his view of the current Maryland race, Steele was not as convinced of an Alsobrooks win as many other observers.

"This race was not a competitive race until Larry got into it," Steele said. "He is a popular two-term governor who left, I think, an important mark on how politics play out in Maryland for Republicans and made this very competitive out of the gate, largely because people had come to trust his style of governance.

Steele said Hogan had a good chance of attracting split-ticket voters - rare beasts, precious to any campaign, in this case prepared to back Harris for president but Hogan for Senate.

It all added up to a warning for anyone expecting a comfortable Democratic win.

"I think the latest polling has Alsobrooks up by 11," Steele said. "I don't believe that, largely because when I'm out in neighborhoods talking to people, and from everything I can piece together, this race is a lot tighter than the traditionalists who look at Maryland think it to be."