Beware: we could be entering a dangerous new era of US-China relations | Christopher S Chivvis

This time, the damage seems to have been contained. This was in large part because the United States judged the threat to be low early on. But the story might have been different if US leaders had thought otherwise or if they had not been able to figure out whether or not the balloon was a threat in the first place. Containing crises in the future will be much harder if lives are lost or sensitive military and intelligence systems are damaged.

A serious diplomatic effort to build these ties could eventually go well beyond crisis management to encompass a broader transparency agenda, information exchanges, verification, safety, arms control and other measures. In the coming years, both sides are certain to seek advantages through intelligence collection, military posturing and other moves, but each side also has a vital interest in preventing an unintended spiral of escalation that could end in catastrophe. Hopefully, this episode can serve as a reminder of the work that lies ahead and how much we stand to lose if we fail to do it.