Anti-abortion groups warn Trump’s row back on position risks losing votes

Over the last two weeks, Donald Trump has publicly backed away from multiple anti-abortion positions - a move that Democrats see as hypocritical and that, anti-abortion activists warn, risks alienating voters who have long stood by him.

On Thursday, Trump said that, if elected, he would make the government or insurance companies cover in vitro fertilization - a type of fertility assistancethat some in the anti-abortion movement want to see curtailed. Trump also seemed to indicate that he planned to vote in favor of a ballot measure to restore abortion access in Florida, which currently bans abortion past six weeks of pregnancy. "I am going to be voting that we need more than six weeks," Trump told NBC News in an interview.

Trump's campaign quickly rushed to walk back his remarks on the ballot measure, telling NPR that Trump simply meant that six weeks is too early in pregnancy to ban abortion. "President Trump has not yet said how he will vote on the ballot initiative in Florida," his press secretary said.

Since the US supreme court overturned Roe v Wade, in a decision backed by three justices that Trump appointed, Trump has alternately bragged about toppling Roe and complained that outrage over its fall will cost Republicans elections. But Trump's comments on Thursday mark his latest attempt to apparently clarify and soften his stance on the controversial procedure. Last week, Trump also suggested that he would not use a 19th-century anti-vice law to ban abortion nationwide, while his running mate, JD Vance, said Trump would not sign a national ban.

"I don't think it tells us necessarily what Trump is or isn't going to do, because he's still been leaving himself wiggle room on a lot of critical questions," said Mary Ziegler, a professor at the University of California, Davis, School of Law who studies the legal history of reproduction. But, she continued: "What had been a strategy of 'be ambiguous and then hopefully be everything to everyone' has tilted more in the direction of Trump trying to assure voters that he doesn't agree with the anti-abortion movement."

Trump's new strategy comes as Kamala Harris, a far more effective champion of abortion rights than Joe Biden, has taken over as the Democratic nominee for president, and as polls show the two candidates are neck and neck. But this strategy may leave anti-abortion voters feeling less energized to vote for him, warned Kristan Hawkins, president of the prominent anti-abortion group Students for Life of America.

"The pro-life movement didn't always have a firm place in the Republican party. For many years, we were at the little kids' table," Hawkins said. "The young people that we work with, they don't remember that. And so they're absolutely shocked and saddened to see someone who they thought was pro-life, or who had always reaffirmed pro-life values, walking back on that."

Although the anti-abortion movement was a critical component of Trump's success in the 2016 presidential election, Republicans have tried to back away from it in the years since Roe's demise as abortion rights supporters have repeatedly won ballot measures even in red states. Sixty per cent of American adults believe abortion should be legal in all or most cases, while 70% say access to IVF is a "good thing".

Tresa Undem, who has polled people on abortion for more than 20 years, does not think that Trump's comments will necessarily win him the support of uncertain or independent voters who support abortion rights. Instead, he may be trying to reassure the segment of his base that also supports access to the procedure.

"A third of his voters are pro-choice," Undem said. "In a recent survey we did, 16% of 2020 Trump voters say abortion rights are a top five issue. So when you have an election that is probably going to be determined based on 1% of people, 16% of Trump voters saying their abortion rights is top in their mind - that's a problem for him."

Democrats have cast Trump's new strategy, particularly his comments on IVF, as a sham. In a Friday press call organized by the Harris campaign, the Massachusetts senator Elizabeth Warren, a Democrat, repeatedly pointed out that Vance had voted against a Senate bill to create federal protections for IVF.

"Trump that thinks women are stupid and that we can be gaslighted," Warren said. "He seems to believe he can do one thing when he talks to his extremist base and then turn around and smile at the overwhelming majority of Americans who want to see access to abortion and IVF protected."

On Friday, the DNC is rolling out billboards in Pennsylvania, a critical battleground state, that slam Trump over IVF, according to a strategy shared exclusively with the Guardian. "Trump overturned Roe, threatening the future of IVF," one billboard reads. Another says: "Donald Trump's Project 2025 Undermines Reproductive Care and Threatens IVF."

Project 2025, a playbook of conservative policies drawn up by the influential Heritage Foundation, contains a long list of anti-abortion proposals. Trump has tried to distance himself from it over the last several weeks.

At least one prominent anti-abortion activist, Lila Rose, has publicly declared she currently does not plan to vote for Trump, given his recent turn away from anti-abortion positions. But Hawkins is still committed to getting people to vote for Trump - not because of Trump himself, but because she fears how a Harris presidency would strengthen abortion access.

"I don't like it. It's not where I think we should be as a nation, but I think that we've had to do this at times within the pro-life movement," she said. "Folks are asked: if you can't vote for a candidate, vote against the worst one."

What Hawkins is less sure of is whether Trump's comments will affect Students for Life's get-out-the-vote program for the 2024 election. "I think it remains to be seen whether or not we're also talking about Donald Trump at the doors," she said.