‘It’s not a theoretical proposition’: the ‘war game’ imagining a coup in the US

On 6 January 2025, US democracy stands at a crossroads. Congress must certify the results of an election that the loser refuses to concede. The Capitol is besieged by a wave of protesters who believe the election was stolen. Some of them are armed and determined to seize power for their leader. Similar groups have amassed at state capitols around the country. And a portion of the DC National Guardsmen - as well as a portion of the US military, including a handful of high-ranking officials - are on their side.

This is a fictional scenario, played out in a "war game" simulation with real government and military officials in a mock situation room. But according to a new documentary capturing the role-playing exercise, such a crisis of authority - and the fracturing of the military along partisan lines - is a very real possibility in the politically polarized US, one that we should prepare for. "It's not a theoretical proposition," said Jesse Moss (Boys State, Girls State), a co-director of War Game, now playing in US theaters. "Even a very small sliver of the US active duty military that chooses to side with, say, a defeated candidate in a national election, could destabilize our country and put our democracy in jeopardy."

War Game, which premiered at Sundance earlier this year, observes the six-hour event held at a Washington DC hotel room in January 2023. The simulation, developed by the Vet Voice Foundation, is one of several role-playing exercises developed in response to the events of January 6, to help military and government officials prepare for another worst-case scenario. How will the US government react if it happens again? And what if the president can't count on the support of the military? Nearly one in five January defendants had a military background. In May 2021, 124 retired general and admirals signed an open letter propagating the lie that Joe Biden stole the 2020 election from Donald Trump. As Benjamin Radd, a game producer who viscerally recalls living through the breakdown of institutional authority in 1979 Iran, puts it: "Think about the unthinkable."

While other exercises, such as those recently led by the Brennan Center for Justice and the Democracy Futures Project, focus specifically on role-playing responses to a second Trump presidency, War Game mostly doesn't name the elephant in the room, examining instead the forces and potentials of political extremism in the US. The distance - using footage of January 6, but not naming the names - allowed for some renewed urgency and clarity. "Sometimes it's impossible to see something that's right in front of you," said Tony Gerber, the film's other co-director. "And you have to find new ways to show people that thing, because there's this sort of intentional blindness to see that thing that's right there."

The exercise participants, a bipartisan group of military and cabinet officials from the last five presidential administrations, must respond to what is essentially a more organized version of January 6. The so-called "red cell", developed by military veterans Kristofer Goldsmith and Chris Jones, present a multi-faceted and mutating threat on the ground and online, where the situation room - comprised of mock president-elect Hotham (former Montana governor Steve Bullock) and his team of advisers - must also fight an information game. Jones and Goldsmith, both experts on domestic extremist movements who understand veterans' disillusionment with the government's status quo, based their mock insurgency group, the Order of Columbus, on Trump's Maga movement, the conspiracy quasi-religion known as QAnon and far-right paramilitary groups involved in the Capitol attack, such as the Proud Boys or Oath Keepers.

Participants - including former senator Heidi Heitkamp, retired major general of the Maryland national guard Linda Singh, Lt Gen (Ret) Jeffrey Buchanan, former senator Doug Jones and Elizabeth Neumann, deputy chief of staff of the Department of Homeland Security under Trump - must decide how to combat a metastasizing threat, complete with mock news coverage, speeches and social media posts egging insurgents to follow their "real" leader. They must contend with a video from a high-ranking general, based on the former Trump official and Stop the Steal rally speaker Michael Flynn, calling on the military to disobey the commander in chief. With the DC Guardsmen compromised, should they mobilize other national guards? Should the federal government get involved in coup attempts at state capitols? How much force is too much? And when, if ever, should the president invoke the Insurrection Act, considered the game's nuclear option, which allows the executive to deploy the US military on its own citizens? (Though the film-makers had total editorial control, they ran potential security issues by Vet Voice: "We didn't want to give any insurrectionists a handbook to stage a coup," said Moss.)

That last decision is particularly resonant, given the law's potential for great destruction in the wrong hands. The film's one mention of Donald Trump by name comes in footage from the Congressional January 6 hearings, in which Jason van Tatenhove, a former member of the Oath Keepers, confirmed that the group's leader, Stewart Rhodes, urged then president Trump to invoke the Insurrection Act, promising that veterans would support him. "Regardless of the outcome of this election, that act is a power the president has, and it's a power that's worth thinking about," said Moss.

"This film doesn't lose its meaning and its relevance with this election," Gerber added. "A problem like this doesn't metastasize overnight. This has been cooking and growing and coming to fruition for years. And we as a nation have to ask ourselves, how did we get here?"

To that end, the film attempts to "understand, with empathy, how a young man or a young woman coming home after serving overseas could be radicalized", said Gerber. In cutaways from the real-time exercise, Goldsmith, Jones and game designer Janessa Goldbeck movingly discuss the real threat of extremism in the military, particularly for veterans struggling to reintegrate into society after service, in wars based on government lies or obfuscation, in a country where fewer and fewer civilians have personal ties to the armed forces. They've witnessed it, in themselves or in loved ones. "I do understand the insurgents," says Goldsmith in the film. "I understand what led them down that path. Because I was there after I got home from Iraq."

For participants in the game, the exercise offered a rattling six hours of both anxiety and the empowerment of preparation. The simulation had "real intentional utility", said Moss, in that it produced a report shared with policymakers, but also as way to excise fear, anger and shock over what happened four years ago this January, over what is still dividing the country. "These divisions, these fears, this extremism - it's not over there. It's right here. It's within our country. It's within our family," said Moss. The film provides "a kind of catharsis to deal with the traumas that we carry, and to think about, in hopefully a constructive way, where we might be going".