‘I’m rocking with Kamala’: Black men defy faulty polling by showing up for Harris campaign

On Monday night, more than 53,000 Black men joined a virtual conference, Win With Black Men, to rally behind the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee, Kamala Harris. During the four-hour call, organizers said the group raised more than $1.3m for the Harris campaign and grassroots voter organizations focused on Black men.

The success of the call, which was inspired by the Win With Black Women call the night before, runs counter to the narrative shaped by recent election polling indicating that 30% of Black men are planning on voting for Donald Trump. "Don't let anybody slow us down asking the question: 'Can a Black woman be elected president of the United States?'" Raphael Warnock, who represents Georgia in the US Senate, said on the call. "Kamala Harris can win. We just have to show up. History is watching us, and the future is waiting on us."

Black voters have consistently been a key voting bloc for Democrats, but experts say inaccurate polling about Black men in particular could be creating false narratives about their leanings this election cycle, mainly the idea that there is a mass shift of Black voters to the Republican party. Win With Black Men, which was hosted by the journalist Roland Martin, said it's working to dispel stereotypical notions about changes in Black male voting habits, their refusal to support a woman candidate and their unwillingness to mobilize politically.

"People are making a lot of conjectures without actually talking to a large enough sample of Black people to be able to say things with the precision that they're making it," Andra Gillespie, an associate professor of political science at Emory University, said. "You're not going to be able to detect what is likely to be no more [than] a one- to three-point swing in favor of Donald Trump based on changes in surveys where you're talking to 200 Black people at a time. I can't say with any statistical certainty that that three-point shift is real or not."

Unrepresentative polls can also have an adverse effect on voter habits. People tend to vote if they perceive that an election is close, Gillespie said. So polls that suggest that Trump is going to win easily and that even Black people will vote in droves for him may distort people's understanding of reality. Ensuring that the public is aware of potential polling inaccuracies is key.

"These narratives are also used to kind of confuse Black voters themselves, which can in turn depress Black vote and drive down turnout," said Christopher Towler, founder of the Black Voter Project (BVP), a national polling initiative. "It can be used as a mechanism of voter deterrence, knowing that Black voters will play a key role in this election."

Though Gillespie said it will take a few days for new polling that specifically examines how Harris is performing with Black voters, recent mobilization around Harris suggests that narratives about a would-be exodus of this bloc from the Democratic party might have been premature.