‘Democrats are losing’: a battle on EVs could cost Kamala Harris votes in Michigan

As the critical swing state of Michigan hangs in the balance, experts warn that Democrats' poor messaging over the shift to electric vehicles could lose them the state in November's election.

"I will end the electric vehicle mandate on day one, thereby saving the US auto industry from complete obliteration, which is happening right now," Donald Trump told the Republican national convention in a speech this summer that would reach tens of millions of people.

Despite his burgeoning friendship with Tesla's Elon Musk, Trump has remained a consistent critic of EVs and battery-powered vehicles more generally. The messaging has resonated with many United Auto Workers (UAW) members, eroding Joe Biden's support among union members in Michigan by as much as 25 points since the 2020 election.

The claim that EVs require less labor is probably not true: multiple studies and industry executives have said it takes about as much or more labor to produce EVs. Still, the Biden-Harris campaign has not pushed that essential point, and in the process is losing the messaging war over EVs, imperiling Democrats' chances in tightly contested Michigan as union support sputters, according to Bernie Porn, an Epic-MRA Michigan pollster.

Autoworker votes are critical to Michigan and other must-win upper midwest industrial swing states - Trump won there by a narrow 10,000 votes in 2016.

Biden retook the state with broad union support four years later, but by late 2023, union members here preferred Trump over Biden by a 47-40 margin, Epic-MRA found. Following the UAW endorsement early this year, Biden's support among unions bounced up to 52% - but still 13 points below the last election.

About 55% of state residents are also opposed to the EV transition, polling found.