What to expect from the Trump-Putin call on Ukraine war

Trump is eager to fulfill his campaign promise by making a deal with Putin to end the war in Ukraine, which he has called a "bloodbath."

Here's what to expect and what not to expect from their conversation.

Both Trump and Putin will likely remain cordial and respectful to each other, continuing to showcase their skills and talents in diplomacy. Unlike former President Biden and his VP Kamala Harris, who frequently got exasperated by Putin's recalcitrance, calling him a "killer," Trump does not insult Putin. The master of the Art of the Deal knows how to dance the waltz of diplomacy. 

Underneath the facade, neither Trump nor Putin trust each other. Smiles and positive gestures notwithstanding, in his first term, Trump pursued the most forceful anti-Russia policy since Ronald Reagan. He authorized lethal aid to Ukraine, sanctioned the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, booted out Russian spies who operated out of its embassy posing as diplomats, and shut down three Russian facilities in the U.S. that effectively served as espionage operating bases targeting the homeland. Trump also took several measures to mitigate Russia's ability to exploit vulnerabilities in America's way of war, which is highly reliant on technology.

In 2018, after the summit in Helsinki, Putin mocked the idea that Trump trusted him: "You can't trust anyone. Where did you get the idea that Trump trusts me and I fully trust him?" Putin told journalists. "He [Trump] defends the interests of the USA, and I of Russia."

Indeed, feelings and emotions are simply not part of the statecraft that serious and strong heads of state use when dealing with each other, especially when it comes to Russia and the United States, both of which consider themselves exceptional great powers.

When it comes to the substantive side of the Trump-Putin deal on Ukraine, there will be no breakthrough on Tuesday. But both sides will likely report positive progress with no specific details.

The 30-day ceasefire deal is unachievable. Putin is highly unlikely to be compelled to accept a ceasefire because he is prepared to fight until the bitter end.

As President Trump recently admitted, Putin "holds all the cards." Washington could and likely will apply even more severe economic pressure on Moscow, as U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett recently suggested. Hassett claimed that there's "a heck of a lot of things" that Trump is ready to use as part of his "carrots or sticks" strategy to pressure Putin.

But the Russians believe Team Trump are bluffing, suggesting that it's too risky to play the cards involving global economic ramifications. The Russians think more aggressive sanctions against Russia's energy sector would backfire, resulting in even higher prices here. Regardless, Moscow believes it can weather sanctions, as it has done thus far. Indeed, no economic sanctions have changed Putin's behavior in the past decade.

The Russian media is praising Putin's "six words" message to an "impatient" Trump (My za mir, no est' nyuansy, in the Russian language), referring to Putin's recent televised statement in which he claimed that Russia is for peace, but "there are nuances." On Sunday, Trump claimed that he was "being a little bit sarcastic" when he promised on the campaign trail to end the Russia-Ukraine war in 24 hours.

On Sunday night, speaking with journalists on Air Force One, Trump sounded more realistic and clear-eyed.

"We want to see if we can bring that war to an end," he said. "Maybe we can, maybe we can't, but I think we have a very good chance."

If the commander in chief realizes that Putin is stringing him along, he will cancel the call and walk away. Letting Putin stew might soften him up, prompting a comeback if the Russians really want peace. The mess that President Trump inherited from Biden and the Europeans will almost certainly not be resolved in a phone call, if at all.