Western intel officials hunt for signs of Wagner and nuclear warheads in Belarus ahead of NATO

In the wake of the uprising by Wagner Group forces in Russia, the US and Europe have turned their gaze to an increasingly unpredictable Belarus - a key Russian ally that Western officials fear could give the exiled mercenary troops a new home and serve as a staging ground for Russian nuclear weapons.

But so far, US and European officials have not seen clear signs that either scenario is unfolding. While officials are closely monitoring an apparent military camp that sprung up outside of Minsk following the uprising in southern Russia, Wagner troops do not appear to have moved into the country en masse.

"It could happen that Wagner PMC decides not to relocate here," Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko said on Thursday. Wagner leader Yevgeny Prigozhin is not even in Belarus, Lukashenko told CNN - he is in Russia, Lukashenko claimed.

And while Russian President Vladimir Putin said last month that the facilities in Belarus necessary to store the tactical nuclear weapons would be ready by July 7, Western officials have seen no signs of that, either. Belarus still does not appear to have the proper infrastructure to house the weapons, officials said, and it will likely be months, if not longer, before doing so is even technically feasible.

Available satellite imagery has also not shown any signs of the kind of preparations and security that would be standard at a Russian nuclear facility. Russia has the world's largest arsenal of nuclear weapons, with 4,477 deployed and reserve nuclear warheads, including around 1,900 tactical nuclear weapons, according to the Federation of American Scientists. It is not clear how many of those Russia is potentially planning to deploy to Belarus.

"We are in this fog of Russian mirrors. What actions will Putin take? We don't know," said Max Bergmann, the director of Russian and European studies at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

"Putin does not need tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus to use those weapons," Bergmann added. "But it is concerning to the US that tactical nuclear weapons could potentially be co-located in Belarus with Wagner fighters. That said, it seems there is a long way to go before we would even get there."