UAP may have more backing than polls suggest, with voters too embarrassed to voice support, analysis shows

It was the third time the UAP had paid for the hour-long ad, which ran on Channel 9 and 7flix in recent days.

The cost of the hour-long TV ads pales in comparison to the eye-watering $70m Palmer had vowed to spend on advertising by election day.

On YouTube, the UAP spent $9.58m on ads from the beginning of February until 8 May. The party spent $2.38m in the week ending 8 May, according to the most up-to-date figures available, and this weekly spend is understood to have increased since.

Meanwhile, the federal Labor party has spent about $1.9m on YouTube ads since the beginning of the year, while the Liberal party has spent about $750,000.

This election, the UAP is directing voters to preference Liberal and Nationals candidates ahead of Labor in a swathe of key seats. UAP preference flows were viewed as helping the Coalition retain seats and enjoy swings at the 2019 election.

When the Guardian visited an early polling centre in the eastern Sydney seat of Wentworth last week, more than a quarter of those exiting saidthey voted in favour of the UAP.

Several said they were previously swing voters but were attracted by the anti-vaccine mandate and Covid restriction policies of the party.

Data analyst Elisa Choy said she believes most polling companies are not capturing the real level of support for the UAP.

Maven then scans the data for emotive language, and applies an artificial intelligence tool to gauge the popularity of different political issues and parties.

While the number of hardcore anti-vaxxers yet to receive any Covid-19 vaccine is low across the country, Choy said that voters sympathetic to UAP could include a much larger share of Australians who felt nudged into getting vaccinated due to government vaccine rules, while others resented harsh Covid restrictions.

Choy said her analysis points to topics such as climate change, integrity, interest rates and the cost of living as being most likely to influence voters.