Seats to watch: the NSW election is likely to come down to these key electorates

The New South Wales state election on Saturday is shaping up as the closest in 16 years. The Coalition government, already in minority, is fighting to hold on after a series of scandals, high-profile resignations and a creaking economy.

Labor, on the other hand, faces an uncertain path to victory. The opposition needs to pick up at least nine seats to form a majority government, and will need to produce a significant swing to get there. Its leader, Chris Minns, also holds one of the narrowest margins in NSW and faces a tricky challenge from high-profile independent Troy Stolz.

It will make for fascinating viewing when the votes start to roll in on Saturday night.

Here are the seats to watch.

Climate 200-backed independent Victoria Davidson is hoping to unseat planning minister and senior Liberal Anthony Roberts, who holds the seat on a very safe 14.7% margin. Polling in the lead-up to the election has the Coalition concerned about the seat, but Lane Cove is an electorate in two parts: wealthy areas in the east and young families and high rises around Chatswood and Gladesville.

The other southern seat where Perrottet stopped on his final week sand-bagging tour, South Coast is notionally safe for the Coalition on a 10.6% margin. But the retirement of long-serving incumbent Shelley Hancock after two decades, along with a bitter preselection contest has put it in the hopeful category for Labor. It could also be helped by Greens preferences. The minor party only won 13.7% of the vote in 2019, but their candidate, Amanda Findley, was popularly elected mayor of Shoalhaven council in 2021 and the minor party believes it is in with a shot.

Northern beaches independent mayor Michael Regan is challenging the new Liberal candidate, Toby Williams, after the retirement of longstanding Liberal health minister Brad Hazzard. Held on a massive 21.9% margin, issues include the buses, Wakehurst Parkway, development, Pep 11, gambling and cost of living.