Seachangers and migrants have transformed Victoria since 2018. What does that mean for the election?

Now 20, Rajesh voted for the first time at the federal election in May and is excited to head back to the polling booth for the Victorian election in November.

Sign up to receive an email with the top stories from Guardian Australia every morning

Then there are the internal migration trends. Many have abandoned the inner city and moved to the urban fringe or regional Victoria.

Demographer Simon Kuestenmacher says the trend has been partly driven by the pandemic but believes it will continue for at least another decade, given the lack of affordable housing in the inner city for millennials as they start families.

Kuestenmacher expects to see an increase in votes for progressive parties outside Melbourne as a result.

A generational shift in the electorate is also emerging.

Samaras says millennials, aged 25-39, made up 18% of the roll in 2012 and baby boomers 56%. This year, millennials will make up 36% of the roll and baby boomers 39%.

He says renters are also emerging as a key voting block at the election in inner-city seats such as Caulfield and Hawthorn, which are held by the Liberals and Labor respectively on razor-thin margins.

Renters make up 39% and 40% of voters in the two electorates, where independent candidates are also set to run.

It is a similar situation in the seats of Albert Park, Richmond and Northcote, where Labor is fending off challenges from the Greens.

As her first state election nears, Rajesh says she wants to see the government invest in more affordable housing and rental options, go further to tackle climate change and transition from coal, and provide better mental health, drug and alcohol services, and more public transport options.

She also wants to see more young, culturally diverse women and First Nations people elected to the Victorian parliament.