Routing of Russian forces from Kyiv area will be hard to repeat in eastern Ukraine

It is impossible to describe this as anything other than a serious reverse. Such is the haste of the exit that some units are being left behind to be mopped up by the Ukrainians. Sumy, a little over 30km from the Russian border, did not fall to the invaders, while the road to Chernihiv, which was at risk of encirclement, is now open to the capital to the south-west.

What will happen here is less certain. Russia still has the ability and desire to attack, and its forces are pressing south of Izyum, a key strategic point, to try to envelop the Ukrainian army that faces the separatist Donetsk and Luhansk territories to the east. But it appears its forces are having less success advancing north to join up from Velyka Novosilka, 100km north of Mariupol. And after nearly seven weeks of intense fighting, it is not at all certain Russia can keep up the effort.

Ukraine will recognise the nature of the war has changed. Its supply lines, in particular weapons from the west, have become less fraught. But despite limited counter offensives, there is no sign its forces have the capability to push back the Russian forces where they have made gains in the east and the south. Calls for jets and tanks have gone unheeded, although Australia has promised to send Bushmaster armoured personnel carriers, which will help with mobility.

Ukraine has not been defeated, although it faces a fight on its hands in the Donbas. But without a change on the battlefield it may once again be partitioned de facto, against its will.