One year after the start of war, what lies ahead for Ukraine?

But a harder test is coming, when the west must decide what kind of a friend it will be to a vulnerable, half-ruined country where the fighting has largely stopped, but where the war has not gone away, and may not go away for generations.

Clearly this is unacceptable; were Russia to keep, by agreement or by boots on the ground, some parts of Ukraine, Kyiv would rightly expect the west to back it in making clear it would have no role in the rest. And yet the west has barely begun to formulate a coherent vision for how its preferred future Ukraine would fit into this dangerous world. Having set the precedent in recent months, a long armistice between Russia and Ukraine might easily be punctuated not just by peace talks but by waves of Russian rockets, drones and cruise missiles launched to stunt the recovery of a painfully rebuilding country.