More control, less deniability: what next for Russia in Africa after Wagner?

Two weeks later, last Thursday, US officials and Nigerien leaders agreed to a phased withdrawal of American forces from Niger that would take place as soon as feasible in the coming months.

The Telegram message served as status update on recent developments: an exodus of western militaries from the Sahel twinned with expanding Russian influence.

Moscow is keen to extend its sphere of influence on a global scale, find further export markets and access natural resources. Africa presents the perfect opportunity to execute those ideas, some observers say.

Influence is directed through an umbrella entity run by the Russian ministry of defence called Africa Corps, believed to be named after a German outfit in north Africa during the second world war. It has incorporated Wagner group, the controversial paramilitary company that was headed by Yevgeny Prigozhin before his death onboard a jet north of Moscow last August.

In the decade before his death, Prigozhin had forged relationships with the leadership of countries such as Mali, Libya, Central African Republic and others, deploying mercenaries to help tackle insurgencies or provide personal protection for leaders. In return, Wagner got access to mines and infrastructure deals as well as political clout.

He was seen as the conductor of an orchestra of many parts: beyond provision of security, Wagner operatives also worked in mining, election interference, and the manufacturing and disseminating of disinformation.

Analysts say the new arrangement is an indication from Vladimir Putin of a zero-tolerance approach towards independent mercenary forces.