Mass strikes on Ukraine are a desperate answer to Putin’s critics at home

The victims were ordinary Ukrainians: those who died at the busy intersection of Volodymyrska and Shevchenko streets in Kyiv, at a downtown playground, or the hundreds of thousands now in homes without light, water and heat in cities across the country due to a barrage of Russian cruise missiles.

But Vladimir Putin's "mass strikes" on Monday were also a desperate answer to his military's critics at home, to the fact that Russia's invasion is failing, and to his own wounded pride after the Crimean Bridge, a pet project, was rocked by an explosion this weekend.

"What he is doing now is trivial revenge," said Andrei Kolesnikov, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. "Personal revenge as well."

For months, Russian war pundits, armchair generals, military bloggers and others have been clamouring for all-out war against Ukraine. And, as the horrific images began to appear from Ukrainian cities such as Kyiv, Lviv and Dnipro of bodies in the streets and plumes of smoke rising from city centres, they were satisfied for a moment.

"We warned you, Zelenskiy, that Russia still had not begun in earnest," wrote Ramzan Kadyrov, the Kremlin-installed head of Chechnya, who had criticised top army generals in recent weeks. "Now I'm 100% satisfied with how the [war] is being waged."

When Putin led a session of his security council on Monday, he presented the attack as a case of Russia demanding action following the explosion that rocked the Crimean Bridge, a symbol of Russian prestige and of his control of the peninsula.

"It was impossible to leave this kind of crime without any response," Putin said in televised remarks, blaming the blast on Ukrainian intelligence.

Ukrainian officials quickly pointed out that Russia had been launching strikes against civilian infrastructure since the beginning of the war. Russia's strike on Monday was the largest barrage against cities since 24 February, but not a fundamental change to the war.

"No, Putin was not 'provoked' to unleash missile terror by 'Crimea Bridge'," wrote Dmytro Kuleba, Ukraine's foreign minister. "Russia had been constantly hitting Ukraine with missiles before the bridge, too. Putin is desperate because of battlefield defeats and uses missile terror to try to change the pace of war in his favour."

In his short speech, Putin claimed the strikes were made at the "request of the defence ministry". If true, that would make it one of the first decisions enacted by Gen Sergei Surovikin, the new unified Russian battlefield commander who has been dubbed "General Armageddon" for his hardline and unorthodox approach to waging war.

"I am not surprised to see what is happening this morning in Kyiv. Surovikin is absolutely ruthless, with little regard for human life," a former defence ministry official who has worked with him told the Guardian. "I am afraid his hands will be completely covered in Ukrainian blood."

At the same time, Putin said that attacks such as Monday's mass barrage of missiles would be reserved as responses to strikes on Russian territory. Whether or not that is true, the statement is one that will anger hardliners who believed they were witnessing Russia's new, all-out approach to this war.

"We must hope that this is not a one-time act of revenge but a new system of waging war," Alexander Kots, a hawkish military reporter for the pro-Kremlin Komsomolskaya Pravda newspaper, wrote before Putin spoke. "Across the entire Ukrainian government. Until they lose the ability to function."

Whatever praise Putin has earned from the military's critics by using cruise missiles to target civilian infrastructure in Ukraine may be short-lived.

"Russian public opinion wants mass attacks and the total destruction of infrastructure that can be used by the Ukrainian army," claimed Sergei Markov, a former Kremlin adviser and political commentator. He, like other pro-Kremlin figures, have mostly ignored the fact that the strikes also targeted ordinary civilians.

The complexities of the Kremlin's internal decision-making on the war remain opaque.

While the infighting among Russian officials has been palpable in recent weeks, Putin has also made clear that the war is deeply personal for him, and often launches into tirades on Ukrainian statehood and history that put him in line with some of the most hardline elements of his government.

"Perhaps it is important for Putin to respond to the discontent of hawks and ultra-conservatives. But I would not exaggerate their influence on the decisions he makes," said Kolesnikov. "He is himself the most important hawk and ultra-conservative. This war is his personal war with Ukraine and, as it turned out eight months later, with the world order constructed after 1945 and 1991."

One theory in Moscow is that Putin has sought to reduce anger over the defence ministry's conduct of the war by appointing a new military commander with a brutal reputation to show that the military now has carte blanche.

Surovikin is in favour with hardliners. He maintains a good working relationship with the Wagner private military company, said Gleb Irisov, a former air force lieutenant who worked with Surovikin up to 2020, and his appointment was welcomed by top critics of the war effort, including Kadyrov and the Wagner head, Yevgeny Prigozhin.

"[Surovikin] is very cruel but also a competent commander," said Irisov. "But he won't be able to solve all the problems. Russia is short on weapons and manpower," he added.