Labor are careful not to write him off, but the pressure is all on Scott Morrison | Hugh Riminton

Australia is now racing to the line. In six weeks we could have a new government. Or not.

The 10-point two-party-preferred lead Labor enjoys on Newspoll will inevitably narrow as the election closes in. The polling is an expression of anger; it is not a sure gauge of polling booth behaviour. And the budget has done all it can to blunt that anger.

A second round of fatal floods in the NSW Northern Rivers, an extension of what was already in dollar terms the most expensive natural disaster in our history, reminds voters of the unavoidable costs of inaction on climate change.

The mining industry can rightly claim credit for much of the boost to government revenues since December. But if more cash is coming in from coal, not much is going into speeding the transition to a lower emissions future.

Whoever takes government after May faces fiscal traps.

Meanwhile, the NDIS was conceived by the then lowly parliamentary secretary, Bill Shorten, on the back of a Productivity Commission report promising the reforms would be revenue neutral. The argument was that better support for people with disabilities would get more of them into the paid workforce and liberate personal carers, often a close relative, to get back into the economy.

It was always optimistic. NDIS funding is rising into the future at more than 10% a year. Frydenberg says the NDIS will always be fully funded under a Coalition government, but it will soon exceed the Defence budget.

Morrison may take encouragement from that. Bob Hawke, then openly stalked by Paul Keating, lost the popular vote in 1990 but hung on for the win. Can Liberal campaign director Andrew Hirst do as Hawke and Graham Richardson did 32 years ago: work a marginal seats campaign that counter-balances the general mood to throw the government out?

Maybe.

Hawke lost eight seats in 1990, but he had a 24-seat majority from 1987.

Scott Morrison has no such cushion.