Johnson prepares fightback as allies admit confidence vote now likely

The prime minister will this week launch a health and housing policy fightback in a last-ditch attempt to win over his critics. He is widely expected to face a vote on his leadership as soon as this week, with some MPs predicting that the threshold of 54 letters asking for one has already been exceeded.

Hours earlier, the transport secretary, Grant Shapps, had said he did not think there would be a vote this week.

The source said there was no prospect of Johnson offering his resignation if he won by only a small margin, or of offering to go before the next election, as Theresa May did.

Johnson will not shy away from the potential humiliation of the two upcoming byelections, aides said, and is planning visits to Wakefield and Tiverton, both of which the Tories are widely expected to lose to Labour and the Liberal Democrats respectively.

Some newer MPs are said to be nervous of acting too soon and are considering pushing to delay a confidence vote until after 23 June, when the byelections are due to be held, to give the best chance of ousting Johnson and allow potential leadership candidates more time to prepare.

This week Johnson is also expected to announce an extension of the right to buy to millions of people who rent from housing associations, as well as the extension of other home ownership schemes. There are also tentative plans to formally table the controversial legislation to override parts of the Northern Ireland protocol.

One former minister, a supporter of Johnson, said that even among those who back him he will need to win back trust and show he can win the next election with a big agenda.

Just 18 MPs have publicly declared that they have sent a letter, but MPs who are running the numbers believe there are at least 70 who have now publicly expressed a lack of faith in the prime minister.

The vote is a secret, in-person ballot held in parliament. To survive in office, a Tory leader requires the backing of a minimum of half of his MPs plus one, meaning Johnson would need the support of at least 180 of his parliamentary party.