It began with a pre-dawn insurrection on religious discrimination and it got worse for Scott Morrison | Katharine Murphy

The news in the other chamber was no better. As the sun rose, it seemed certain the government would not have the numbers to push its religious discrimination legislation through the Senate. The Liberal senator Andrew Bragg also intended to cross the floor.

Conservatives, beyond furious with the moderates, were now baying for blood. Without a course correction, and pronto, there was going to be an explosion.

So things were bad.

Things were going to get worse for Morrison.

There are always nuances.

But whatever the nuances, fact is the confidential conversation leaked, and it leaked on the day where Morrison had to kick his religious discrimination package into the long grass.

This felt like a direct hit. An absolute bullseye. But as direct hits go, this one is passing strange.

These things are clear. The Morrison government, five minutes from an election, is tired and ragged. Relations between moderates and conservatives are strained to breaking point. Unresolved factional poison in New South Wales has disrupted the equilibrium in Canberra.

People close to Peter Dutton swear black and blue that the Queenslander is not moving this side of the poll.