Interest rate rise: who makes the high-stakes decision and how does it get made?

With so much riding on it, how does the RBA make its determination and what is the likely outcome?

The last time the RBA lifted rates during an election was in 2007 when governor Glenn Stevens and his board hiked the rate by 0.25 percentage points to 6.75%. The move angered then prime minister John Howard who went on to lose his seat and the election.

Interestingly, the bank under the current governor Lowe waited until after the 2019 election before cutting the cash rate by 25 basis points to 1.25% in June of that year.

The RBA board has nine members, all of whom have been appointed by the Coalition government in their current roles. Lowe, though, first joined the board as a deputy governor in 2012 during the Labor government led by Julia Gillard.

Women make up most of the board for the first time following the abrupt exit of deputy governor Guy Debelle in March, with Michele Bullock stepping up to fill the role.

Most non-officials have tended to be in business, including Mark Barnaba, deputy chair of mining giant Fortescue.

Ian Harper, director of the Melbourne Business School, held roles including the inaugural fair pay commissioner, and is also on the board of the right-leaning Robert Menzies Institute.

Wendy Craik, a former head of the National Farmers Federation, has also served in a number of government roles mostly appointed by Coalition governments, such as the now all-but-defunct Climate Change Authority.

Steven Kennedy, who is a board member by dint of being treasury secretary, is arguably the most political appointment.

Before the meetings, RBA staff provide board members with information about the economy to help them prepare. Staff, other board members, and Lowe himself would often make presentations.

Mariano Kulish, another University of Sydney professor, who worked at the RBA until 2010, said the staff would typically provide a recommendation that would be discussed.

Financial markets, though, have reduced their expectation of a rate rise, according to an ASX tracker. A separate measure also pared the prediction for a May rise while predicting a firm move of the cash rate target to 0.5% by the June meeting.

The RBA, though, would also be watching its overseas counterparts. Central banks in the US, the UK, New Zealand and elsewhere have already been raising rates, sometimes for months.

The longer Australia waits, the more pressure will be placed on the Australian dollar, Kulish notes. The currency has already dropped from the mid-70 US cent range to just above 70 US cents.