If the metropolitan moderates are wiped out next week, the Liberals must learn the right lesson from defeat | Katharine Murphy

But persisting with our wipeout scenario, if this happens (everybody heard the if there I hope) Dutton is in the box seat to become opposition leader. Our scenario then naturally tracks to the reflexive horror of Liberal moderates at the idea of Dutton being their frontman. But I suspect the reality here is more nuanced.

Obviously, Dutton is not a positive for the electoral fortunes of any remaining metropolitan moderates south of the Tweed. But private Dutton is different from the political character the Queenslander has spent a career cultivating.

I suspect a chunk of the remaining moderates would enter this transition hopeful that Dutton (who, in dealings with colleagues is personable, and is also regarded as a competent minister) would try to use the opportunity of the party leadership to broaden his political identity.

The problem with this theory is Dutton would be in opposition, not government. In opposition, the incentives for broadening identity are less pressing.