Hopes rise for Ukraine talks, but experts doubt Russia will pull out

As Russia has pursued its war with Ukraine, it has held parallel negotiations with Kyiv ostensibly seeking a peace deal from its own invasion of a neighbouring country.

Those talks, which appeared to be a sideshow to the continuing war, received an unexpected boost on Wednesday as both sides indicated that discussions had yielded some progress.

But any lasting peace depended on convincing the Kremlin it could not achieve victory on the battlefield, analysts said.

While Russia has taken ground in southern Ukraine and is manoeuvring toward Kyiv, it was clearly expecting a shorter and less costly war. And those mounting costs on Russia, including some clear signs of queasiness inside the system, may influence a key decision-maker that a pause to the violence may be in his interest, if not a lasting settlement.

Inspired by its early successes on the battlefield, Ukraine has also indicated that it will not capitulate to Russian demands.

And Ukraine will want to have ironclad security guarantees, probably ensured by the west, as fears remain that Russia could use any ceasefire as an excuse to resupply its troops before continuing its onslaught.

For now, analysts said they expected the talks could at most yield a temporary ceasefire or interim deal rather than any kind of lasting Russian withdrawal.

Nonetheless, there are worrying signs that Russia is planning to intensify its attacks and bombardments of cities to give it greater leverage in negotiations.