Glitch or death spiral: can the Liberal party brand be revived?

Tasmania is the only state or territory where the party still reigns after the New South Wales election saw the Perrottet government dumped last weekend.

Liberal MP, Alan Tudge, who quit after battling various controversies, oversaw the Aston margin dwindle to 2.8% at the 2022 election.

Even a win, accompanied by a further erosion of that slender margin, would be swiftly interpreted as an indictment on the party and its leader, Peter Dutton.

And there is the tarnished brand, thanks to successive leaders and the terrifically unpopular current leader.

None of these things are easy to fix.

The 2022 federal election results were forensically picked apart in the Australian Electoral Study.

And while younger people were tending to the left, they were not swinging back to the centre-right in their 30s as they once did.

Mistakes in a 12-year-old government add up: revelations of pork-barrelling in grants schemes; the protracted scandal over the appointment of former premier John Barilaro to a plum New York posting; big infrastructure projects going over budget; and two corruption inquiries.

Unlike other states and federally, over the last 12 years the NSW Liberals found a way to manage their ideological differences. On contentious social issues, like abortion and assisted dying, it allowed a free vote. And on climate change, the party largely accepted it needed to encourage renewable energy, while also keeping the fossil fuel industry sweet by approving a new gas project at Narrabri.

The factional chiefs also forged a pact over the leadership, which meant the premier was not constantly looking over his shoulder.

The Victorian opposition, meanwhile, has spent the lead-up to the Aston byelection tearing itself apart over one of their own appearing at an anti-trans rally where the Nazi salute was performed by a group of far right gatecrashers.

In South Australia, Labor ousted the Liberals after just one term. A range of factors were at play, but, as with other states, there are factional wars and gender woes, along with claims of branch stacking by the conservatives.

The Country Liberal party lost its hold over the Northern Territory in 2016 after bouts of infighting, failed coups and stories about slush funds, ending up with less than a handful of seats.

Outgoing NSW treasurer, moderate Matt Kean, was particularly targeted for his progressive stance.

The moderates are not having a bar of it.

He pointed to the decline in support from women, younger voters and some multicultural communities, particularly Chinese Australians, and said that the federal Liberals had to respond to concerns on climate change and support working women.

But that will not build a constituency big enough to win elections. People care less about culture wars, he says, than the cost of living, the health system and climate change.

Bongiorno says the party has to deal with its gender issues and with why women are much more likely to vote Labor or Greens.

Then there is that generational issue.

They have also been captured by minorities at the branch level, he says, leaving them vulnerable to penetration from religious groups.

McAllister says parties can change, but it often requires a dramatic shift.

Guardian Australia has contacted Liberal leader Peter Dutton for comment.