George Christensen changes the dynamic for an already intense Senate race in Queensland

The problem for Newman, who is running for the Senate for the Liberal Democrats, is the crowded field of fellow Liberal National party defectors and their various minor parties, mostly vying for the same block of disaffected rightwing voters.

At best, Stoker is competing with these defectors for two Senate seats.

But more realistically, as these parties chase the support of rightwing voters and those still seething about past Covid restrictions, there will likely only be room for one of them in the 47th parliament.

The common wisdom is that the Liberal National party and Labor will each win two of six seats at the half-Senate election. That means the likely return of senators James McGrath, Matt Canavan, Murray Watt and Anthony Chisholm.

Opinion polling suggests that scenario is unlikely to be repeated this time around.

The Greens are running Penny Allman-Payne, a teacher from Gladstone. Tiernan says the crowded contest on the right could play into the hands of the Greens, whose support in Queensland has increased steadily in recent years.

One of the more interesting elements of this race is how broadly unpopular some of the most competitive candidates are.

The fragmentation of the LNP on its fringes was put into fresh focus this week by the defection of Christensen, who had increasingly embraced anti-vaccine and anti-government conspiracy theories while he remained a member of the government.

The subtext was that, for those who wanted the LNP to move further right, it needed warriors for the cause to fight internal battles. One of the great ironies of his move to One Nation is that it poses the greatest risk to Stoker, who herself has shared ultraconservative Christian views.

Tiernan says it will be interesting to see how the situation shapes the LNP campaign in Queensland and how it manoeuvres to keep voters, who might be inclined to support one of these minor parties, inside the tent.

Christensen himself said this week that he had once believed he should fight for conservative values from the inside.