Frustrated, frazzled and under siege - Scott Morrison’s faith in himself takes a hit

Scott Morrison doesn't have to imagine the things that could cost him government in a few months' time. Chaos and animus closed in this week.

New South Wales - the division supposed to deliver the Coalition its fourth federal term - made a big show of resisting Morrison's urgent electoral imperatives, and the brinkmanship of his proxies intent on shoring up their own preselections. Morrison needed tranquility, and the state division of the Liberal party obliged him by roiling.

The bushfire in the Coalition's base also burned through to Canberra. Protesters opposed to vaccine mandates - Australians who feel economically and culturally dispossessed by the creep of government during pandemic - spilled up the forecourt of Parliament House. There were sovereign citizens, anti-vaxxers, doomsday preppers, Trumpers and enraged owner-drivers, yes; but also grey nomads with packed lunches, Thermos flasks and sunsmart hats. A woman from a property just out of town told me she was there because it was impossible to know what, or who, to believe any more. Nothing made much sense. Most people, she thought, just needed simple solutions.

When the freedom lovers learned Morrison wasn't in his office, the convoy rolled out their swags in the parliamentary triangle, and then converged on the National Press Club on Tuesday. Morrison had gone there to change the conversation about the election. The prime minister knows voters want to give him a kicking because they are exhausted and frustrated by a government that seems to repeat its past failures of anticipation in an endless loop.

But some of the backlash isn't yet baked in. Tuesday was about giving Australians permission to forgive him. The self-interest here is obvious: if voters hold a grudge, Morrison is all out of miracles.

Morrison on Tuesday was sorry, not sorry - sorry enough to soften the edges of prime ministerial arrogance, but not sorry enough to accept any serious liability. He was sorry he was too optimistic before the summer. He had got people's hopes up, and Omicron had dashed them. He was sorry he hadn't sent in the army sooner to correct the infamous vaccine "strollout".

But self-initiated show trials have limits. Morrison submitted his plea bargain. Dealing with Omicron was like dealing with a whole new virus. So the undertone of Tuesday's reboot was: shit happens, guys, it's not really fair to blame me.