First, we did too little to oppose Russia. Now do we risk going too far the other way? | Hans Kundnani

However, since the war in Ukraine started, I have suddenly been out-hawked. As we have all watched the horrible images from Ukraine, outrage has grown about the war crimes being committed by the Russian military. As the calls for us to do more to help the Ukrainian people have become louder, I have found myself on the doveish side of the debate, arguing for de-escalation and ways out rather than further commitments to Ukraine and regime change in Russia.

Here is how I think about what has happened. Since the Russian annexation of Crimea and the invasion of Donbas in 2014, we have tried to deter Vladimir Putin from going further in Ukraine or elsewhere in central and eastern Europe. There was an economic component of the strategy (sanctions) and a military component (the reinforcement of Nato forces in Poland and the Baltic states and training for the Ukrainian military, in which the UK played a leading role).

We are in an unprecedented and extremely difficult situation. But it seems to me that we have to pivot. The aim must be to do all we can to avoid a further escalation (while taking seriously the possibility that Putin may himself escalate, for example, through the use of chemical or even nuclear weapons), and to end the war. But instead, experts in Europe and the US are urging all kinds of economic, political and military steps whose consequences we have barely begun to think through and that have the potential to drag Nato into a war with Russia.

In addition to sanctions and supplying weapons, many experts are also urging the EU to fast-track the accession process for Ukraine. Yet the Kremlin sees both Nato and the EU as part of the same US-led project and has made it clear that Putin will do anything to stop Ukraine from integrating further into either. After all, the catalyst for the Russian annexation of Crimea in 2014 was a proposed association agreement between the EU and Ukraine. Further steps to integrate Ukraine risk a further Russian response, a possibility we do not seem to want even to discuss, because we believe that Ukraine ought to be able to choose its own destiny.