Essential poll: Labor remains in lead but race tightens after Liberal party election campaign launch

While women are more inclined to support Anthony Albanese than Morrison, and Liberal MPs in metropolitan contests report that many professional women express a visceral dislike of the prime minister, the trend in the Guardian Essential data suggests women aged 18-34 have been drifting towards the Coalition and the Greens for some months, with that trend accelerating since February.

The Coalition is polling ahead of Labor with voters over the age of 55, with men, Queenslanders, and voters living in the outer suburbs and in rural areas. Morrison has trained his election messaging on those voting cohorts, generating speculation about whether he has abandoned moderate Liberals facing off against teal independents in an attempt to flip Labor seats in the regions and outer suburbs.

Albanese will use a National Press Club address on Wednesday to make his final national pitch to undecided voters. Australians are currently prepolling in record numbers. Labor will release its final policy costings on Thursday.

Almost half of the Guardian Essential sample (49%) believes it is time to change the government. Only 32% of respondents favour the status quo, while 18% remain unsure. More voters believe the country is currently on the wrong track (42%) than the right track (40%) but 18% of respondents are unsure.