Emmanuel Macron’s coalition level with new leftwing group in French elections

A frantic final week of campaigning will begin on Monday before the second round, as Macron's centrists still hope to edge ahead but face uncertainty over whether they can win a crucial majority of seats in parliament.

Macron, who was re-elected president in April against the far-right's Marine Le Pen, needs a majority for his centrist grouping in the national assembly in order to have a free hand for his proposals to cut taxes and make changes to the welfare system.

The parliamentary results will set the balance of power for Macron's second term, defining his capacity to deliver domestic policies such as raising the retirement age and overhauling the benefits system.

France's constituency-based, first-past-the-post voting system for parliament means that the exact number of seats for each grouping remains hard to predict. The shape of the new parliament will become clear only after the second round on 19 June.

Based on early estimations, Ispos predicted Macron's centrist alliance would win the greatest share of the 577-seat parliament - taking between 255 and 295 seats. This suggested there was a chance they could fall short of an absolute majority, which requires 289 seats.

If Macron's party and his allies fail to secure a majority, it would be a setback for the president and could prompt messy bill-by-bill deals with rightwing parties in parliament or an unwanted cabinet reshuffle.

The left alliance could take between 150 and 190 seats, according to Ipsos.

Le Pen's far-right National Rally party, which won eight seats in 2017, hopes this time to get at least 15 seats, allowing it to form a parliamentary group and gain greater visibility at the national assembly. Ipsos suggested the party could take up to 45 seats. Despite Le Pen coming second in the presidential election with a historic high of 41%, the first-past-the-post voting system for parliament has historically proved difficult for her party in legislative elections.

The first weeks of the new government have been tense in the run-up to the parliamentary elections, with hospital strikes and concerns about the cost of living, and Macron has been accused by Ukraine of being too accommodating to Russia.

Borne, who is running for the first time in a Normandy seat, was well-placed for the second round run-off.

Jean-Michel Blanquer, Macron's former education minister, was eliminated in the first round in the Loiret.

Macron has made it clear that serving ministers who are running for election will have to step down if they lose.