Despite shakeup at the Fed, a rate hike in September is likely

Some Federal Reserve officials are already advocating for two consecutive rate hikes starting this month to ensure inflation's defeat, but will their sway hold amid a shakeup at the Fed committee that decides interest rates?

Probably.

St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, the Fed's most hawkish voice, announced Thursday he is stepping down in August. Economist Adriana Kugler, known for her dovish posture, is likely to win Senate confirmation for a governor role at the central bank.

While a July rate hike has been baked in for some time, the Fed's decision in September isn't as clear and plenty of data will be released until then.

What is clear, however, is that the Fed chair historically has a major influence in the Federal Open Market Committee, the Fed's monetary policymaking arm. Fed Chair Powell has said the Fed still has more work to do, and he himself hasn't ruled out back-to-back rate hikes. The central bank has a tradition of collegiality, meaning that although officials debate their views, they still respect the view of the majority. That's why the vote in June was unanimous, despite the debating that was evident from the meeting minutes, released earlier this month.

Right now, it seems like the hawks outnumber the doves.

Fed Governor Christopher Waller, who has a permanent vote on the Fed committee that decides interest rates, doubled down late last week on the widely held view among Fed officials that two more rate hikes are needed this year.