Current emissions pledges will lead to catastrophic climate breakdown, says UN

Pledges to cut greenhouse gas emissions will lead to global heating of 2.5C, a level that would condemn the world to catastrophic climate breakdown, according to the United Nations.

Only a handful of countries have strengthened their commitments substantially in the last year, despite having promised to do so at the Cop26 UN climate summit in Glasgow last November. Deeper cuts are needed to limit temperature rises to 1.5C above pre-industrial levels, which would avoid the worst ravages of extreme weather.

But the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has estimated that greenhouse gas emissions need to fall by about 45% by 2030 compared with 2010 levels, to give the world a chance of staying within 1.5C.

A second UN report on long-term low-emission development strategies, also released on Wednesday, examined the plans that many countries have put in place to reach net zero emissions by or around mid-century. These plans showed that emissions could be about 68% lower in 2050 than in 2019, if all the long-term strategies are fully implemented on time.

The prospects for the Cop27 UN climate summit, hosted by the Egyptian government, which will begin in Sharm el-Sheikh on 6 November, are being viewed with increasing concern. Geopolitical tensions from the Ukraine war, the energy, food price and cost of living crises around the world, and the chill between the US and China are all casting a shadow over the talks where the likelihood of major progress on emissions cuts remains small.

Participants in the talks are hoping at least for progress on climate finance to help poor countries cut their emissions and cope with the impacts of extreme weather.