Climate limit of 1.5C close to being broken, scientists warn

The year the world breaches for the first time the 1.5C global heating limit set by international governments is fast approaching, a new forecast shows.

The probability of one of the next five years surpassing the limit is now 50%, scientists led by the UK Met Office found. As recently as 2015, there was zero chance of this happening in the following five years. But this surged to 20% in 2020 and 40% in 2021. The global average temperature was 1.1C above pre-industrial levels in 2021.

The annual forecast harnesses the best prediction systems from climate centres around the world to produce practical information for decision-makers. It found a higher chance of rain in 2022 compared with the average of the past 30 years in northern Europe, the Sahel, north-east Brazil and Australia, while drier conditions than usual are forecast for south-western Europe and south-western North America.

The forecast indicates that the rise in Arctic temperatures will be three times greater than the global average over the next five years.