China may be on brink of supplying arms to Russia, says Blinken

Blinken made the warning to the Chinese state councillor Wang Yi on Saturday evening at a meeting on the sidelines of the Munich security conference during which he also rebuked China over the use of an alleged spy balloon over US soil.

Blinken told US networks that the US had information China was considering whether to give Russia assistance, possibly including guns and weapons, for the Ukraine war.

The US believes China may already be providing some surveillance information to the Wagner group, the mercenary wing that works alongside the Russian army.

Kamala Harris, the US vice-president, in her speech to the security conference warned China against providing lethal equipment to a country that she said the US had judged was committing crimes against humanity. But Harris in her remarks did not assert that such lethal aid was about to be provided.

The US has indicated it believes the plan is likely to be a vague assertion of the value of peaceful dialogue, territorial integrity and sovereignty, but without going into any details. European diplomats briefed on the plans also seemed sceptical about the value of a broad enunciation of vague principles, questioning whether China was really prepared to distance itself from its close partner Russia.

On the other hand, China is probably the only external actor that could put effective diplomatic pressure on the Russian president, Vladimiir Putin, to rethink his strategy.

Some fear the plan may be designed to head off support in the so-called global south for any resolution to the UN general assembly asserting support for Ukraine. Such a resolution either at the general assembly or to the smaller UN security council has been under discussion to mark the anniversary.

The last time the issue was addressed by the general assembly, Ukraine received the support of 141 states, and it may be hard to increase that level of support.

In the speeches of both the German chancellor, Olaf Scholz, and the French president, Emmanuel Macron, there was no support for early peace talks, with both men saying the west may have to endure a long conflict.