Brazilians shocked as Bolsonaro’s strong election showing defies expectations

"It is terrifying, it's just bizarre for us, it's frightening," said Raquel Barbosa, a 28-year-old community manager whose mother-in-law was one of nearly 700,000 Brazilians killed by a Covid outbreak Bolsonaro called "a little flu".

Bolsonaristas trumpeted their movement's stronger-than-forecast showing, which saw their trailblazer secure more than 51m votes despite his international notoriety as an authoritarian-minded zealot.

Lula won the first round with 57m votes, or 48% of the total to Bolsonaro's 43%. But Bolsonaro's unexpectedly high share - pollsters had tipped him to claim 36% or 37% - has shattered predictions that re-election is beyond his reach in the 30 October runoff against Lula.

Adding to the progressive pain, a wave of Bolsonarista hardliners were elected to congress, with Bolsonaro's Liberal party claiming 99 of its 513 seats - the largest bloc in more than two decades. The winners include Eduardo Pazuello, the army general-turned-health minister accused of bungling Brazil's Covid response, and Ricardo Salles, the controversial environment minister under whom Amazon deforestation soared.

Consuelo Dieguez, the author of a book on Brazil's right called The Serpent's Egg, attributed Bolsonaro's performance to deep-rooted and widespread voter rage at the corruption scandals that blighted the 14 years that Lula's Worker's party (PT) held power. "Their reasoning is: I don't want the PT, I don't want this crook Lula, and I don't want these lefties coming along championing things like gay marriage and abortion," she said.

The Bolsonaro vote had also been strengthened by billions of dollars of welfare handouts to the poor. "He has dished out so much money - and even so he didn't manage to win," Dieguez said, rejecting the portrayal of Sunday's election as an unmitigated triumph for Bolsonarismo.

"This wasn't a victory for Bolsonaro - he did badly," Dieguez insisted. "This is the first time that a candidate who is president came second in the first round. Lula nearly won - he missed by very little."

Dieguez still believed Lula would beat Bolsonaro when 156 million Brazilians return to the polls later this month. The third-place candidate, Simone Tebet, is tipped to back Lula in exchange for a cabinet job.

But for now, Bolsonaro's unforeseen surge has dealt a distressing and unanticipated blow to his foes.