Belarus military drills to begin as Russia ratchets up Ukraine tensions

Valery Gerasimov, the head of the Russian general staff, arrived in Belarus on Wednesday to oversee the drills.

Russia has moved up to 30,000 troops, two battalions of S-400 surface-to-air missile systems and numerous fighter jets into Belarus for joint training exercises with the Belarusian army. Satellite imagery shows much of the hardware has been moved to locations close to the border with Ukraine.

Privately, he told Poroshenko he would not allow Belarusian territory to be used by Russia in any attack against Ukraine. When Volodymyr Zelenskiy was elected in 2019, Lukashenko again extended the hand of friendship.

Then, in August 2020, huge protests erupted in Belarus when Lukashenko declared an overwhelming victory in a rigged presidential election. The protest movement came within a whisker of toppling his regime, but Lukashenko regained control with a crackdown.

After staying silent for some days, the Kremlin eventually decided to back its troublesome ally, offering Lukashenko support and financial backing as most western countries imposed sanctions and refused to recognise the election results.

In an interview this week with Vladimir Solovyov, a pro-Kremlin television presenter, Lukashenko went further, saying that if Ukraine launched an assault on Donbas, he would send Belarusian troops to fight alongside Russian troops to repulse the attack.

Later this month, he will hold a constitutional referendum, widely dismissed as illegitimate by western countries, that analysts say is meant to pave the way for him to step back from the presidency at some point but retain overall control.