Australian travellers facing expensive international air fares for at least ‘four or five years’

Australians eager to travel overseas and reunite with loved ones after two years of pandemic border restrictions are facing expensive international air fares, with a new analysis showing prices have surged by an average of more than 50% across all destinations compared with pre-pandemic travel.

Many airlines cut all services and closed down local offices at the peak of strict quarantine arrival caps in 2021 as they slowly rebuild and resume services to the country, the cost of international travel to and from Australia is expected to remain high.

International airlines are operating about a fifth of the number of passenger services into Australia compared with pre-pandemic levels - not factoring in Western Australia, where traffic is 1% - according to the Board of Airline Representatives of Australia.

Prices for economy seats are on average 54% above pre-pandemic levels, according to data from travel website Kayak provided to Guardian Australia. The data was based on searches for flights between 1 February and 13 February that were departing within 180 days of the search date.

New Delhi was the most searched-for international destination in early February by Australians looking to book holidays, with airline tickets to the Indian capital among the most overpriced when compared with pre-pandemic costs, the data shows.

The average price of a return economy flight to New Delhi is currently $1,584, up from an average of $1,025 in February 2020.

Bali is the second-most sought-after international destination among Australians, with return flights to Denpasar costing an average of $622. Air fares to Bali are among the closest to pre-pandemic costs, just 13% more expensive than in February 2020 on average.

Flights to London - the third-most searched destination by Australians in February so far - cost an average of $1,832 for a return ticket. In February 2020, the average cost was $1,477.

Manila is the fourth-most searched for destination, with a return average air fare costing $1,352. This is up 81% on pre-pandemic prices, when an average fare cost $746 in February 2020.

Australians are also eager to travel to New Zealand - which still has tight Covid entry rules in place but has announced it will accept vaccinated New Zealand citizens and visa holders coming from Australia from 27 February - with flights to Auckland the sixth most sought-after destination. Return tickets cost an average of $674, up 46% on pre-pandemic levels.

The average cost of a return ticket to Los Angeles costs $1,666, up from $1,074 in February 2020.

Many international airlines have announced the resumption of some Australian routes and increased frequency on others since the Morrison government announced it would reopen the country's borders to allow all remaining visa holders, including tourists, to enter from 21 February.

In the days following the announcement searches for flights to Australia increased by 80%, with most searches originating in the UK, the US and South Korea.

People hoping to travel to Australia face slightly cheaper air fares, with Kayak data showing prices of return fares with an inbound first leg are on average about 40% higher than pre-pandemic costs.

Dr Tony Webber, of the University of New South Wales' aviation school, said he expects air fares to remain high for "at least four or five years".

Webber, who is also the chief executive of the Airline Intelligence and Research group and a former chief economist at Qantas, said this is partly due to the huge financial hit that airlines have taken throughout Covid.

"The airlines are still repairing their balance sheets, they've had no profits the past few years, so they need to charge more on tickets, they need to squeeze more revenue out of customers."

"If you've got 80% fewer seats available, but much more demand for seats, then the prices have to be higher," Webber said. "The airlines won't immediately ramp up services to match demand, because it's still so uncertain and risky, they'll be conservative in returning supply."

Webber added that fuel costs - which plummeted at the beginning of the pandemic - have risen again and are now about 20% above pre-pandemic levels, contributing to higher air fares.

Webber predicted that the high cost of international flying would drive more Australian tourists to take domestic flights - which have resumed at a much faster rate than international levels - with increased demand potentially driving up local air fares too.

Meanwhile, Qantas has angered some local travellers, with a recent booking glitch resulting in a holding charge for the cost of some flights being placed on some customers' credit cards, despite already deducting the cost of the fare at the time of purchase.

One affected customer, who did not want to named, told Guardian Australia "as a result, we are overdrawn on our credit card and unable to make purchases until the three-to-seven days it takes to fix".

It is understood the glitch affected a small number of customers, with Qantas aiming to clear the holding costs within a week.

A Qantas spokesperson has defended recent criticism from customers with flight credit vouchers who claimed their credits were not sufficient to cover the cost of a new fare on an identical route.

She said that the issue affected customers who, from 1 October, booked a flight but chose not to go on it despite the service going ahead.

She explained that while the airline made its traditional fare rules more flexible earlier in the pandemic, it has since "put some of those rules back", which meant customers who asked for a flight credit could only rebook on services of an equal cost.