Australian federal election: the seats that may decide the poll

The only political maxim worth remembering several months out from an election is that no one can predict how it will play out.

But the election campaign is clearly under way already, which means the major political parties have been studying the electorates that need to be won, or held, to provide a pathway to victory.

Labor is basing its overarching message on whether Scott Morrison can be trusted.

But the fractures left in the wake of the pandemic, which states and territories have experienced very differently over the past two years, mean the campaign is unlikely to be primarily about national messages. Instead it will be fought seat by seat, with tailored local campaigns based on what each major party believes will work.