Australian-built conventional submarines vital to fill looming capability gap, says defence thinktank

Australia must build conventional submarines before escalating to a nuclear-powered model or the whole program could fail, the Australian Industry and Defence Network says.

Pressure is building on new defence minister, Richard Marles, to work out how to deal with the looming capability gap, as regional tensions increase.

Both on and off the record, insiders say a more likely solution is to build a non-nuclear submarine here. That would help train the workforce while providing new submarines sooner than the nuclear option.

It is understood a long-term freezing out of the Swedes is thawing, with more official communications back and forth. Saab Kockums also recently invited Australian defence writers to inspect its work upgrading its existing fleet and working on its upcoming A26 models.

France, with its conventional Barracuda class submarine, won the CEP only to be unceremoniously dumped partway through in favour of the Aukus agreement.

As it becomes clearer that any nuclear-powered submarines are unlikely to be in service before 2040, and that even with extensive overhauls the existing Collins class will progressively be taken out of service before then, attention has turned to that capability gap, and returned to the idea of a son of Collins.

However, submarines from other countries could also be an option, as could filling the gap with other technology in place of submarines, such as missiles, sea mines, long-range aircraft and warships.

The Australian Federation of Shipbuilding Unions has said it wants up to six conventional submarines built here, to plug the capability gap and maintain the workforce and skills.

Guardian Australia has asked Marles for more details on how he will decide what to do.

An updated Collins would be the least risky option, Clark said, because industry is already working on the existing submarines, their maintenance, and the extensive life-of-type extensions.

Spain, Germany, Singapore and Israel have possible options, Patrick said.

Hellyer said building some boats overseas might be an option and Australia could focus on maintenance instead.