Australia would be ‘naive’ to think China’s new Antarctic station not for surveillance, analyst says

Australia should be concerned about the prospect of China using a new research station in Antarctica to assist surveillance operations in the southern hemisphere, according to national security experts.

Satellite imagery collected by the Washington-based thinktank the Centre for Strategic and International Studies shows construction of the station on Inexpressible Island near the Ross Sea has resumed for the first time since 2018.

The station is located within New Zealand's historic territorial claim and is close to the border of Australia's claim, which covers 42% of the continent. It is also near the US research station McMurdo, on Ross Island, the largest base in Antarctica.

CSIS believes the new Chinese station will include an observatory with a satellite ground station and will be well positioned to collect signals intelligence over Australia and New Zealand, and telemetry data on rockets launched from Australia's new Arnhem Space Centre.

Peter Dortmans, a senior researcher at the strategic policy thinktank Rand, agreed the location of the station offered China an intelligence-gathering advantage.

"Inexpressible Island is probably in a better position for signals intelligence compared with China's Zhongshan base within Australia's Antarctic territory," he said.

"However, its proximity to McMurdo is significant. As such, we would expect the US will be monitoring the facilities closely and would be well placed to assess any signals intelligence risk."

John Blaxland, a professor of international security and intelligence studies at the Australian National University, said Chinese satellites were capable of detecting submarines from the wake they produce when surfacing.

"The satellite network that they operate requires additional ground support and Antarctica is an ideal place for it," Blaxland said.

Under the 1959 Antarctic treaty, to which China is party, activities on the continent are restricted to "peaceful purposes". Military personnel are allowed to conduct scientific research but analysts, including Blaxland, believe that information can also assist intelligence operations.

"Information on shipping patterns in the southern Indian Ocean, out of a place like Fremantle for example, would be well and truly more than scientific," Blaxland said.

"When we think about Antarctica, we often think about it in terms of science and not geostrategy. China is definitely thinking about it in terms of both and it's naive for us to think they aren't and not respond accordingly."

China has rejected claims that its stations would be used for espionage and said it frequently collaborates with Australian scientists. Western nations also use satellites in Antarctica.

Donald Rothwell, a professor of international law at the ANU, said China had the legal right to "seek to build its scientific bases anywhere it wishes in Antarctica".

"The concerns about 'dual use' military/civilian activities on Antarctic bases are well known and have been much discussed, but it cannot be denied that intelligence gathering takes place between the Antarctic treaty parties with respect to their various bases," he said.

The Australian government was contacted for comment but did not respond before deadline. When previously asked about Chinese satellites in Antarctica, a spokesperson said Australia expects all treaty signatories to respect the rules.

"Australia's active international engagement in Antarctic issues ensures we have good knowledge of international activities in Antarctica," the spokesperson said.