Australia's emissions from land clearing likely far higher than claimed, analysis indicates - The Guardian

Australia is likely to be releasing more emissions from deforestation than reported to the United Nations, new analysis indicates, stoking calls for an independent review of the sector that has delivered the bulk of the country’s claimed reductions in greenhouse gas pollution in recent decades.

An assessment of satellite imagery of more than 50 properties in Queensland by Martin Taylor, an adjunct senior lecturer at the University of Queensland, has identified significant discrepancies between what is treated as cleared land by Australia’s National Carbon Accounting System (NCAS) and the Statewide Landcover and Trees Study (Slats) used by the state government.

How countries have treated emissions from the land sector - clumsily known as Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry (LuluCF) - has been contentious for decades, partly because of the challenges of accurately measuring and monitoring what can be subtle changes in vegetation even between seasons and periods of drought and wet spells.

The Australian government has relied on its reporting of falls in land-clearing rates for almost all the reductions that allow it to claim the country’s emissions have fallen by about one-fifth since 2005, and that Australia has “over-achieved” on its pledged cuts under the Kyoto protocol.

An accurate estimate of changing vegetation cover also underpins the veracity of carbon offsets, with the majority of claimed cuts paid for through the federal government’s emissions reduction fund going to the land sector. Its new long-term emission reduction plan to reach net zero by 2050 also relies heavily on it.

“Emissions from [LuluCF] have fallen by 114m tonnes of carbon dioxide-equivalent since 2005, and in 2019 the sector represented a 25 Mt CO₂-e sink for Australia,” the government’s net zero plan report states. Australia reports annual emissions of about 500m tonnes.

Deforestation has featured at Cop26 the climate summit in Glasgow, with Australia among the 105 nations to sign a pledge to reduce forest loss by 2030.