Thursday, 28 Nov 2024

As war drags on, Ukrainians start to ask: could we have prepared better?

As war drags on, Ukrainians start to ask: could we have prepared better?


As war drags on, Ukrainians start to ask: could we have prepared better?
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There had been rumours of a Russian invasion for weeks, and the previous evening US and Ukrainian intelligence received information that pointed to an invasion that night with almost certainty. Yet there was little in the way of last-minute efforts to fortify towns close to the border, or to warn citizens to brace for the inevitable.

President Volodymyr Zelenskiy was at home with his wife and children. Numerous officials in charge of key regions close to the border, and mayors of cities containing strategic military targets, have told the Guardian in interviews over recent weeks that they were in bed and woke up in shock at the sound of booms, rather than having spent the final hours of peace coordinating the defence of their towns.

Why did Zelenskiy remain sceptical of the increasingly alarming warnings from US intelligence that Vladimir Putin was planning a full-scale invasion? Could he have done more to prepare the country? Would it have had much effect?

On 11 February the US embassy in Kyiv called in diplomats from a large number of embassies in the city. The visitors were brought to a secure part of the embassy, small groups at a time, and handed sheets of paper on which was printed information about the likelihood and severity of Russian military action, according to three people with knowledge of the meetings. They were allowed to take notes but not to take the papers away.

Ukrainian intelligence was also receiving its own information, and around 17 February it got word about a number of Russian military orders that had been signed off that suggested something major was brewing. But still there was disbelief that this could mean the Americans had been right all along.

When the invasion did come, Zelenskiy and his team ignored offers from western countries to evacuate, and provided spirited leadership that helped kickstart the fierce Ukrainian defence efforts.

For now, this bravery and determination, as well as the need for unity during wartime, has prevented any backlash over possible mistakes in the buildup.

Serhiy Taruta, a businessman and MP who in 2014 was the Kyiv-appointed governor of the Donetsk region, said it was too early to raise issues about the buildup, but later a discussion would be necessary.

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