As Ukraine war enters new phase, can western arms turn the tide?

As the war in Ukraine enters a new phase, Nato countries have been gradually stepping up their supply of weapons to Kyiv. In doing so, western nations are quietly crossing the defensive-only threshold set by leaders at the start of the crisis.

But the question remains whether the gradual escalation in arms deliveries can avoid a Russian retaliation and turn the tide on the battlefield, where Moscow is seeking to wage a more conventional military-on-military war in the eastern Donbas.

But Ukraine now has to deal with Russian forces in the east and south that have made more defensible gains and are better dug in.

The US announced it would send a further $100m of Javelin anti-tank missiles on Wednesday, on top of $300m of equipment on Friday, which includes two new sets of weapons, designed to help Ukrainian forces better attack the Russians.

The growing supply will certainly help Ukraine fight the second phase of the Russian attack, but it is probably not until the end of April that a clearer picture will emerge of the revised military balance. Without more tanks, in particular, it is not obvious that Ukraine can relieve the besieged Mariupol.