As the Coalition and Labor pretend Australia?s ageing coal plants have a future, the figures don?t add up | Temperature check

Just how much coal-fired power will Australia have left running in 2030?

It has become a sensitive question for the country's major political parties ahead of next year's election.

Both parties have recently released data that suggests under their leadership the country's shift towards a clean electricity grid would accelerate dramatically over the next nine years. But both claim there will not be an accelerated closure of Australia's ageing coal plants that currently provide the bulk of the power.

It is an implausible argument given the scale of the shift under way. Over the past year about 31% of electricity in the national electricity market (covering the five eastern states and the ACT) has come from renewable energy. The proportion has doubled in just four years, but coal still dominates, providing 63% of electricity. Gas-fired power contributes 6%.

The Morrison government has not touted the figure, but official federal data suggests the proportion of renewable energy will hit 69% by 2030 if we continue on our current course.

Anthony Albanese says a Labor government would build on this by introducing a $20bn "re-wiring the nation" policy to connect solar and wind farms and batteries in renewable energy zones to the grid sooner than planned. Modelling of the ALP plan by the research firm RepuTex suggests that by 2030 the grid would run on 82% renewable electricity, leaving less than 20% coming from coal and gas combined.

In terms of greenhouse gas emissions, the Coalition expects a 55% cut from electricity generation by 2030 compared with 2005 levels on the current path. Labor's modelling implies a 74% cut from electricity over the same timeframe under its plan.