‘We’re preparing for it to be bad’: Perrottet missing in action before NSW byelections

As four New South Wales electorates prepare to hold byelections next weekend, one face is noticeably absent from Liberal party campaign material.

In Bega, where the former teacher, scientist and small business owner Fiona Kotvojs is running, the outgoing local MP Andrew Constance is everywhere: on how-to-vote cards expressing support for her, on leaflets praising her "experience and track record".

Bridget Sakr's leaflets in Strathfield in Sydney's west are all about her personal story, with references from the federal MP Fiona Martin and other local figures. While in Willougby, former premier Gladys Berejiklian's endorsements for Menzies Research thinktank head and new candidate, Tim James, are plastered far and wide.

The NSW premier, Dominic Perrottet, though, is missing in action. In fact, the only place the premier features prominently is in Labor's campaign material. Posters of the premier's face are bordered unsubtly with biohazard-tape and the words "make him listen, don't vote Liberal" have been plastered throughout Strathfield.

Ahead of next Saturday's four byelections, Perrottet's lack of prominence tells the story. Most governments struggle in byelections, especially after 11 years in office. Throw in the loss of the ultra-popular Berejiklian to a corruption scandal, anger over handling of the Omicron wave, and green shoots in the long-dormant NSW Labor party, and the government is concerned.

"We're preparing for it to be bad," a senior NSW Liberal party figure told the Guardian this week.

"How bad is the million dollar question, but it has the potential to set a tone, one way or another."

The byelections will take place in the Labor seat of Strathfield, in Sydney's west, and three Coalition electorates - Willoughby, in the city's north, and Monaro and Bega in the state's south. All four were sparked indirectly by Berejiklian's resignation. After she quit in October when the state's anti-corruption watchdog revealed it was investigating her conduct, NSW politics witnessed a rush for the door.

Constance quit to run in the federal seat of Gilmore, while former deputy premier John Barilaro, and former Labor leader Jodi McKay, both bowed out of politics.

Of the four seats, it's Labor's Strathfield that is the most marginal, but all three Coalition seats housed senior government ministers who brought with them a high recognition factor.

Ben Raue, a Tally Room election analyst, said seats could certainly be lost.

"I think the most likely outcome is that all the seats stay in the same hands, [but] I wouldn't say the chances of a change are slim. I would say less than 50%, but if it's 40%, 30%, that's still a pretty good chance," Raue said.

He said Perrottet "doesn't have a lot of seats to spare so he has to hold all of them".

The Coalition is already effectively governing in minority, holding 46 seats in the 93-seat lower house. Two former government MPs, Gareth Ward and John Sidoti, both moved to the cross-bench after separate scandals and have continued to vote for the Coalition, meaning the loss of a seat would not be a threat to its ability to hold on to power. But it does make the margin for error going into next Saturday slim.

For the Liberals, a large swing, even one that doesn't result in them losing a seat, will open the door to layers of interpretation about the government leading in to next year's state election.

"If we got a 5% swing against us, I think most people would accept that as expected," one Liberal party figure said.

"If it's 15%, well, that starts to create some uncomfortable questions leading into the general election next year."

After 11 years and four leaders, including the enormous electoral loss of Berejiklian, a weak showing could create a dangerous narrative for Perrottet.

On the other hand, if the Labor party are unable to make headway, it would undo the strides made by opposition leader, Chris Minns, in establishing Labor as a genuine electoral challenger after more than a decade in the political wilderness.

"It's almost a two election strategy," one Labor party figure said.

"We might not win it this time, but you take the wind out of the government's sails by getting a big swing and then the conversation becomes, 'is Labor finally ready to take back power in NSW?'".

McKay, who quit as Labor leader in May after a poor showing at an Upper Hunter byelection, previously held Strathfield on a 5% margin.

But while the government has preselected a solid candidate in businesswoman and victim support advocate Sakr, whose daughter Veronique was killed in a car crash in Oatlands in 2020, few in the party hold out significant hope of winning.

However, the entry of former Sydney Morning Herald columnist Elizabeth Farrelly into the race as an independent could also pose problems for Labor because NSW's optional preference system allows voters to exhaust their ballot.

Monaro, held by the former deputy premier, Barilaro, covers the southern inland parts of the state surrounding Canberra, including the suburb of Queanbeyan. Held by the Nationals on an 11.6% margin, it has been held by Labor as recently as 2011 but is expected to stay in the government's column.

So too is Willoughby, the seat of former premier Berejiklian. Ultra-safe at 21%, the government is in no danger of losing the seat, but some Liberal party insiders fear a substantial swing after the preselection of conservative Tim James in an area traditionally dominated by the party's moderate faction.

It's Bega, which stretches from just north of the coastal town of Bateman's Bay to the Victorian border, which is shaping to be the most compelling of the contests. Despite its status as a safe Liberal seat, last held by Constance with a margin of 6.9%, multiple sources expressed a level of fear about the party's chances of hanging on.

"We're definitely going to take a hit," one party insider in Bega said.

"What we're hearing is that it might be down to a margin of maybe 2% to 3%.

Raue said Bega and Monaro were interesting because it was hard to predict how significant the loss of the previous, high-profile members would be.

"The other thing is if there is a decent swing and the ALP does well, there's a sense of people having to take them seriously."